Original title: non-agricultural FED Choice in September! Blockbuster events and data Prospect of the week from October 4 to 10

The September non-farm payrolls report will be released in the week of October 4-10. This will be the last jobs report received by the Fed before its November policy meeting to determine whether it will begin a curtailment of bond purchases in November. In addition, Canada will also release employment data. China will release data on foreign exchange reserves and the level of social financing.

In terms of events, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve of New Zealand will announce a new phase of interest rate decisions one after another. After a two-month delay, the New Zealand Reserve is expected to fire the first shot at central banks in the world's major developed countries to raise interest rates and is expected to raise interest rates again in November. The OPEC+ will hold a ministerial meeting, and oil-producing countries are likely to raise their current monthly production target of 400000 barrels a day.

Key words Monday and Tuesday: euro zone investor confidence, OPEC+ ministerial meeting, RBA resolution, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, API inventory

Investor confidence in euro zone Sentix fell for the second month in a row in September. Manfred Huebner, managing director of Sentix, said: "after COVID-19 's blockade was relaxed, the economic recovery has reached its peak. The question now is whether the rebound will take a break or start going downhill again. "

All eyes in the market are now focused on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and the Russian-led partner (OPEC+) next Monday. In addition to the existing agreement to increase production by 400000 b / d in November and December, oil-producing countries are expected to discuss other options.

Four OPEC+ sources said it was possible to further increase oil production, but no one gave a specific amount or month. Another OPEC+ source said it could increase by 800000 b / d in the coming month and not increase production in the following month.

It is not clear what caused the change in tone, but before that, OPEC+ federation technologyThe JTC held a meeting to assess the market outlook and predicted a surplus of 1.4 million b / d in the oil market next year, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 1.6 million b / d. In July this year, OPEC+ agreed to start Nissan in August.The volume increased by 400000 barrels per month and the plan was confirmed at the last meeting on September 1st.

Ahead of the online meeting of the OPEC+ on October 4th, negotiations between member states continued and there was no guarantee that they would agree to an additional increase in production. Sources at oil companies in Nigeria and Angola, Africa's largest oil exporters, have warned that they will struggle to raise production to OPEC quotas until at least next year as underinvestment and thorny maintenance problems continue to hamper output. The problem reflects that some oil-producing countries are now unable to increase capacity to meet soaring global fuel demand along with economic recovery.

Goldman Sachs Group, an investment bankIt was pointed out that potential new virus variants could be a drag on demand, and that the active acceleration of production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and allies of oil-producing countries (OPEC+) could weaken their supply gap estimates, which were key risks to its bullish outlook.

The RBA is concerned that the spread of Delta mutants could slow the economic recovery once the anti-epidemic blockade begins to be relaxed, although the central bank still expects strong growth to return next year, according to the minutes of the RBA's September policy meeting. The committee is considering postponing plans to reduce bond purchases by A $1 billion to A $4 billion a week.

RBA Assistant Governor Bullock warned that Australia's hot housing market is leading to a rise in consumer debt, which could pose risks to financial stability, but she also pointed out that a strong housing market is good for the economy as a whole.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last week that Australian authorities need to tighten mortgage standards to cool the red-hot property market and reduce risks to the financial system, while calling for more action on climate change.

Us retail sales rose unexpectedly in August, easing fears of a sharp slowdown in economic growth; service sector activity rose moderately in August, but there were preliminary signs that supply constraints and soaring prices had begun to fall back, suggesting that even the slowdown in economic growth this quarter will be temporary.

Key words on Wednesday: Fed of New Zealand resolution, US ADP, EIA, Bostick

Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and spokesman, said that the size of China's foreign reserves remained above the 3.2 trillion yuan mark for four consecutive months in August, and the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable during the year, and the domestic stock and bond markets are still highly attractive to foreign investors. multiple factors will continue to support the scale of foreign reserves to remain basically stable.

Wang Chunying stressed that China continues to consolidate and expand the achievements of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, China's economy has maintained a stable recovery, and the quality of development has continued to improve, all of which are conducive to the overall stability of the scale of foreign reserves.

Initial jobless claims in the US rose unexpectedly for three consecutive weeks, possibly reflecting deteriorating labour market conditions and the high volatility of the weekly data. The rise in first-time jobless claims may highlight the volatility in the weekly data, as employers are eager to hire more workers and retain existing staff. However, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time is still hovering near the lowest level since the outbreak.

The Financial Times reported in mid-September that the ECB was expected to reach its 2 per cent inflation target by 2025, according to Lane, chief economist of the ECB, at a private meeting with German economists. The ECB has not yet made this long-term forecast public, and Mr Lane's remarks could be used to infer the future path of interest rates.

Key words on Friday: China Caixin Services PMI, China Social Finance, US non-Farmers, Canadian Employment

The supply and demand of China's service industry contracted to varying degrees in August, as the rebound of the epidemic affected the normal production and operation of the service industry. However, with this round of epidemic under effective control and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday approaching, enterprises are more optimistic about the near-term recovery of the service market.

China's social finance is expected to stabilize in September, and credit, social finance and M2 growth will all enter a slight rebound in the fourth quarter. Under the background that there is plenty of space for monetary policy in our country, the policy will move in camera, and there is room for policy tools such as comprehensive reserve reduction, re-loan rediscount and MLF operation in the future.

Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said that the US economy is still a long way from achieving full employment, which is a key component of the Fed's threshold for raising interest rates. This adds weight to the September non-farm payrolls report to be released on October 8th. The data may show whether COVID-19 's Delta variant has a deeper impact than Fed officials had expected earlier in the summer.

Powell also said that to solve the problem of Qualcomm IncThe "tension" between inflation and stubbornly high unemployment is the most pressing issue facing the Fed, acknowledging that the two goals may be in conflict. As the US economy recovers from the epidemic, rising prices and recruitment difficulties are likely to be "more persistent than expected", and the Fed will take action to deal with runaway inflation if necessary.

JPMorgan Chase & CoA model predicts that the employment data for September will remain weak as consumers appear to have cut back on travel and leisure spending since Labor Day. JPMorgan Chase & Co's model is more accurate than almost all other predictions in predicting a sharp slowdown in US job growth last month.

Canada's unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in August, but remains high. According to a recent report released by the Bank of Canada, the unemployment rate will not fall to a low level until the full recovery of the Canadian economy at the end of this year or next year.

At present, the employment situation in Canada is structurally contradictory: on the one hand, the unemployment rate is still high, on the other hand, there are a large number of job Jim Stanford, a labor economist, believes that the key problem in the Canadian labor market is underemployment, not high unemployment.

The far-reaching impact of COVID-19 's epidemic on the Canadian labor market is the weakening and loss of labor skills. McColum, governor of the Bank of Canada, believes that as a result of the epidemic, many people are unable to work for a long time, and their skills will gradually lose value. Many companies complain that they cannot recruit qualified workers or pay enough for these jobs.