With the rise of software developers, the era of banker-dominated banking is over-a record wave of layoffs will soon sweep the industry.
This is Wells Fargo & Co.The views of analyst Mike Mayo and others. They estimate that the technological advances and automation brought about by these developers will cost the banking sector 100000 jobs over the next five years.
"the new jobs may reduce the level of layoffs, but our conclusion is that this will be Bank of America Corporation.The biggest drop in industry headcount in history, "Mayo and six other senior equity analysts said in a report to clients late Monday.
Banks spend more on technology than any other industry, allocating as much as $200 billion in information technology spending last year alone. Analysts at Wells Fargo & Co have found that this means that the technicians they hire are playing an increasingly important role in the world's largest financial institutions.
Many layoffs will affect low-paying jobs. Analysts say the financial services industry, which operates some of the world's largest customer service centres, is likely to "aggressively" reduce the number of employees in these jobs. The number of employees in branches is likely to fall by 20 per cent over the next few years, accounting for 1/3 of the total number of layoffs in the banking sector.
These analysts have found that software developers have increased their influence on bank purchase decisions and their tool budgets are growing. This means that as consumers quickly adapt to new financial instruments during the outbreak, banks are seeking to add technicians and front-line staff to help manage their applications and websites.
"developers are new bankers," analysts such as Mayo said in a 110-page report. "these tend to be higher-paying jobs, so while banks have reduced the number of employees, pay may not have fallen that fast."
Analysts have found it difficult for banks to improve their back-office functions. This is partly because banks are deliberately cautious in upgrading these systems and face additional regulation during the upgrade process.
"Progress in the back office is still difficult," Mayo and other analysts said in a report, noting that such employees now account for about half of all bank employees. "some will succumb to technology, but others may need legal and regulatory adjustments to completely eliminate them. In any case, over time, banks should be able to significantly reduce the number of back-office staff. "
Banks have been promising for years that extra spending on technology will eventually help reduce costs. Analysts at Wells Fargo & Co have found that while this may be bad for job prospects, it will ultimately help improve profitability.
Wells Fargo & Co found that if interest rates return to normal in the next five years, the efficiency ratio of the banking industry-the cost-to-unit income ratio-will fall by more than 9 percentage points.
"We believe that technology requires banks to be more competitive, achieve the biggest structural adjustment in history and keep record efficiency within reach," analysts said.