Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said it was appropriate to start scaling back bond purchases because the associated economic goals had been met and there may be good reasons to maintain a relatively large balance sheet in the future.
"in my opinion, the criteria for further substantive progress have been met, with inflation well above our target, with the unemployment rate at 5.2 per cent, down 1.5 percentage points from December," George said in a virtual speech prepared for the American Enterprise Institute.
In this case, the case for continuing to increase asset holdings every month has been weakened, which means that it is appropriate for us to consider ending asset purchases soon.
Holdings of these assets are driving down long-term interest rates most relevant to households and businesses, providing a lot of easing.
If the lower zero limit is seen as a costly constraint on policy, it may be advantageous to move towards higher neutral policy rates, which in turn supports a higher and relatively large balance sheet of longer-term assets.
"We may also consider reasons to maintain a small balance sheet at low neutral interest rates, or at least move to a balance sheet with a shorter asset maturity", including "wanting to reduce our footprint in the financial markets" and concerns about the yield curve.
Raising interest rates while maintaining a large and long-term balance sheet is the secret to reversing the yield curve and could have a negative impact on the traditional banking model.
I expect the rebound in service consumption to lead to further strong employment growth, but the Delta variant may delay the rebound in service consumption.
Note: George does not have the right to vote on monetary policy this year.