Source: analyst Xu Biao
Viewpoint 1:
From late July to August, the turnover rate of several hard-tech tracks reached a very high level and began to decline, corresponding to several tracks began to appear phased pullback, internal differentiation and so on.
Viewpoint 2:
In "Seven growth tracks Review: adjustment factors, Space, time-Rhythm", we have reviewed the periodic adjustment range and time of the seven major tracks supported by the industrial cycle-- the periodic adjustment duration of the prosperity growth sector in the upward process of the industrial cycle is mostly in 30-50 trading days, and the index adjustment is 15% 20%.
Viewpoint 3:
Since the recent highs of stock prices in different tracks, the largest range of energy storage adjustment (close to 40%), semiconductors (- 28%), photovoltaic (- 23%), military industry (- 19%), new energy vehicles (- 18%). Compared with the empirical rules of the review, there is little room for a further sharp decline.
However, the adjustment time is relatively short compared with the empirical law of review, and it may take some time to digest it.
Viewpoint 4:
The market consensus on long-term industrial trends in several hard-tech tracks is growing, but stock prices also reflect a lot of expectations, so many people have previously believed that if the stock price does not adjust, the room for absolute earnings may be limited.
At present, on the one hand, the stock price has been adjusted to a certain extent, on the other hand, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, the external risk appetite has dropped sharply, if this leads to further adjustment of the hard-tech track, it may provide a very good opportunity for reconfiguration.
Especially every year Q4, the market will lay out in advance the direction of high prosperity in the next year, and these hard-tech tracks are still the sectors with high prosperity in 2022.
Edit / Phoebe