The reaction to the remarks made by Jerome Powell Jackson Hole, chairman of the Federal Reserve, suggests that the market's excessive concern about downsizing has changed its story.
The market reaction to Powell's suggestion that the Fed may start cutting back on bond purchases this year but will not rush to raise interest rates is typical: inflation pricing has risen moderately and real interest rates have fallen.
Whether the Fed starts to cut its size in November or December, the impact on interest rates will not be much different. What the market really cares about is whether traders still believe that the inflationary pressures repeatedly reiterated by the Fed are only temporary. Powell tried to stress that the recent surge in inflation was caused by a limited range of goods and services, which were affected by the epidemic and the reopening of the economy. And he mentioned the word "temporary" five times in his speech, suggesting that while the cut may be imminent, the Fed is in no hurry to follow up on raising interest rates.
Even if the Fed starts to scale back its asset purchases, the system will be flooded with liquidity. When the write-down is completed, there will still be a large amount of US Treasuries on its balance sheet, which will continue to support interest rates.