On July 28, Morgan Stanley issued a research report to maintain Futu Holdings' "Overweight" rating with a target price of US$163.
In the research report,Morgan Stanley expect Futu's 2Q revenue/ NPAT to decline ~24%/~41% qoq. Their bear case analysis indicates $92 as the potential fundamentally supported price floor. In case of a major market correction, multiples could see pressure though, presenting a temporary downside. Cut PT by 32% to US$163. Remain OW.
2Q21 preview
Morgan Stanley expects the qoq drop mainly due to:
moderating trading velocity;
higher client acquisition cost;
moderating IPO pace.
Morgan Stanley expects ~195k new paying clients in 2Q.
How to value Futu amid market volatilities and where is the bottom?
Morgan Stanley sees recent market volatilities mainly impacting Futu on the below areas:
Moderating ADR and Hong Kong stocks' trading velocity, margin finance demand and client AUM per capita.
Potentially some slowdown in client acquisition pace in existing markets like Hong Kong amid market volatilities and a slower IPO pace in Hong Kong.
Potential higher client acquisition cost and step-up of promotions in Hong Kong.
Earnings estimates
Given market correction and 2Q preview, Morgan Stanley cut profit estimates by 26%-35% in 2021-23E.
Morgan Stanley revise down Futu's profit by 26%,35%,30% through 2021E-23E to HK$3.3bnHK$6.1bn, respectively, mainly due to:
Slower growth in US stock trading volume market share due to ADR volatilities.
Moderation in "other income" item due to a slower IPO pace in Hong Kong.
Some higher client acquisition cost in 2021E given more promotions in Singapore and Hong Kong.
7月28日,摩根士丹利發布研究報告,維持富途控股「跑贏大市」評級,目標價163美元。
摩根士丹利在研究報告中預計,富途第二季度營收/NPAT將下降~24%/~41%。他們的熊市分析表明,92美元是潛在的基本面支撐價格下限。不過,在市場出現重大回調的情況下,相對估值可能會面臨壓力,呈現暫時的下行趨勢。將目標價下調32%,至163美元。保持「跑贏大市」狀態。
21季度預覽
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)預計富途營收環比下降的主要原因是:
交易速度放緩;
客戶獲取成本上升;
IPO速度放緩。
摩根士丹利預計富途第二季度將新增約19.5萬名付費客戶。
如何在市場波動中對富途進行估值,底部在哪裏?
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)認為,最近的市場波動主要在以下領域影響富途:
收益預估
考慮到市場回調和第二季度預估,摩根士丹利將2021-23E年度利潤預估下調26%-35%。
摩根士丹利將富途於2021年至2023年的盈利分別下調26%、35%、30%至33億港元至61億港元,主要原因:
由於ADR波動,美國股市交易量和市場份額增長放緩。
由於香港IPO步伐放緩,“其他收入”項目有所放緩。
由於新加坡和香港的推廣活動較多,2021年的客户獲取成本會更高。