Us crude oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday at an important meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC), breaking above $75 a barrel for the first time since 2018. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 2% to nearly $76 a barrel. The final decision is expected to be made at a later OPEC+ ministerial meeting.

The OPEC meeting comes as demand growth in developed countries, which has been stagnant for years, is recovering rapidly from easing blockades due to the epidemic. All this makes it as difficult to assess short-term crude oil demand as it was when the global economy recovered from the global economic crisis more than a decade ago. Just a week ago, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries met, the organization was inclined to increase production by 500000 barrels a day.

The acceleration of vaccination in the United States and Europe has boosted global economic activity, which in turn has boosted demand for oil. OPEC data show that the market needs an additional 2 million barrels of oil a day this year. At the same time, the Delta virus has wreaked havoc in India, which is a pillar of oil demand growth in normal times.

OPEC has hinted that the expected surge in demand in industrialised countries is temporary and has so far stuck to last year's forecast that demand in rich countries will never reach pre-epidemic levels again. The report points out that the popularity of alternative energy sources is accelerating, energy-saving measures over the past few decades, and population growth is slow or stagnant.

For now, however, the thirst for oil in rich countries has become the main driver of short-term demand. OPEC expects oil demand in industrialized countries to increase by 2.7 million b / d, or 6.3 per cent, in 2021. More than half of the growth will come from the United States, or 1.5 million barrels a day, the company said. This trend will accelerate in the second half of the year, with consumption increasing by 3.1 million barrels per day. While rapidly changing demand conditions pose challenges to forecasts, the scale of collective production cuts implemented by OPEC early last year gives it more ammunition than ever before to calibrate supplies.

IHS Markit expects global crude oil demand to rise by about 7 million barrels a day in the third quarter, or 10 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, compared with the first quarter of this year, driven by North America and Europe. The consultancy predicts that this will bring oil demand to about 99.1 million b / d in the third quarter of 2021, still below its estimate of global consumption of 102 million b / d at the end of 2019. It expects the world to reach this threshold by the middle of next year.

Jim Burkhard, head of crude oil markets, energy and liquidity research at IHS Markit, said: "OPEC+ has market support rarely seen in decades, at least for the time being. "at present, the oil world is recovering at two speeds. About 3.9 million barrels a day arrived at Indian ports in the first three weeks of June, down about 280000 barrels from the previous month, according to Kpler, a market intelligence company that tracks global ships.

In May, Indian Oil Corp., India's largest oil refining and fuel retailer. It said it had cut its processing capacity by 12 percentage points. Its smaller competitor, Bharat Oil (Bharat Petroleum Corp.) Capacity was cut by 16 per cent and several shipments were delayed.

In the United States, by contrast, gasoline demand for road travel has rebounded and aviation fuel demand for air travel has soared. Us gasoline demand is likely to increase by about 600000 barrels a day over the next two months, far exceeding market expectations. Traders say only fuel consumption on the west coast still lags behind 2019 levels.

Saade Saad Rahim, chief economist at commodities trader Trafigura, said: "the oil market is recovering faster than expected. "

In the days at the end of June, the number of passengers passing through the Transportation Security Administration (Transportation Security Administration) checkpoint climbed to more than 2.1 million, hundreds of thousands lower than in 2019 and almost double the number at the end of March.