Original title: this indicator indicates that US stocks will be very dangerous in the coming month, but it is the biggest risk.

Last week, the s & p 500 fell more than 1%, the Nasdaq fell more than 2%, and u. S. stocks have not stopped falling this week.

Kramer (Jim Cramer), the CNBC financial mogul, advises investors to keep a close eye on market volatility because the stock market may have more downside. He said the CBOE (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) showed that the current situation was likely to continue into June.

Citing research by Sebastian, an expert on the VIX index, Kramer pointed out that generally speaking, when the VIX index rises for a long time (usually 2 to 6 weeks), it is easy for the US stock market to have a real correction.Kramer believes U. S. stocks may underperform over the next month and a half. After that, however, the stock market is likely to recover in the future.

As an important measure of stock market volatility, the higher the VIX index, the greater the stock market volatility. Since the beginning of this year, the VIX index as a whole has shown a downward trend. However,Since mid-April, the index has climbed nearly 30% from near its lowest level, while the S & P 500 is down 0.5% this year over the same period.。

Earlier, Citigroup also predicted that annual earnings in global stock markets would rise by more than 36% this year. Generally speaking, when earnings grow by more than 25% that year, it means that the stock market is in good condition. In 2010 and 2004, for example, the MSCI global index achieved positive returns. However, before entering a stable bull market, the market may have to go through a period of high volatility.

That's not even the scariest part. At a time when the market is facing the risk of volatility, the economic outlook is also fraught with dangers. In fact, some analysts point out thatSharp market volatility is not a real risk, but economic uncertainty is.。

April's employment data showed that employment was only 266000, well below the forecast of 975000 and the largest gap on record. What kind of concept is this? Under normal circumstances, an expected deviation of 50, 000 is surprising enough. In addition, there is the problem of inflation, which has also surged much higher than expected recently.

Dennis Debuscher (Dennis DeBusschere), a strategist at Evercore ISI, saidOne way to measure economic fluctuations is to observe changes in personal consumption expenditure.。In general, the change in the reading is quite small, and since 1990, the fluctuation of the index has not been above or below the average by more than a standard deviation.However, Mr Debus Schell points out that it is now a full 5.5 standard deviations above average, something that never happened even at the height of the financial crisis.

Greater volatility makes the future of the economy more difficult to predict and puts pressure on the Fed-should the Fed stick to its earlier lenient stance on inflation and maintain a dovish attitude? And this will determine whether the market will experience greater volatility.

So far, the Treasury market has been relatively stable. In recent days, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has mainly fluctuated in the range of 1.63% Mel 1.67%. The ICE BofAML MOVE index, which tracks implied volatility in the Treasury options market, has barely budged. But if the Fed starts to scale back its bond purchases, that will be hard to sustain and could spread to bonds and other financial markets.