Source: Global Market Detector
Author: YGAMN&chdr
Niuniu knocks on the blackboard:
In terms of opportunities, Mr Gandelak, who was once very bullish on commodities, said short-term commodities had risen too much. Although it is too early, Gundlach has long been bullish on emerging market stocks.
Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and chief executive of AUM $135 billion DoubleLineCapital, said: "the Fed has been manipulating the market for a long time. Asset valuations are already very high because of the staggering amount of stimulus. "
"since the Fed started quantitative easing, there has been a link between the Fed's expanding balance sheet and the S & P 500, which is like the law of physics. If you divide the market capitalization of the Stemp 500 by the Fed's balance sheet, it looks like a constant. "
"even if the stock market is valued at a high historical level, it is still below the average compared with the bond ratio. "
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI in April was 0.8% higher than in March, far exceeding market expectations. Excluding food and energy, core inflation rose 0.9% from the previous month, the biggest monthly increase since 1982. In addition, compared with the same period last year, CPI rose 4.2 per cent in April, faster than expected, the biggest increase since September 2008.
The CPI reading in April was higher than the DoubleLine forecast. Gundlach said, DoubleLine Capital's model predicts that inflation may rise in the coming months and may peak in July.
"if inflation continues to rise, then people will worry about whether inflation is temporary. "
"it is a long way from the 30-year peak of US bond yields, which is a risk factor to be wary of. "
In terms of opportunities, Mr Gandelak, who was once very bullish on commodities, said short-term commodities had risen too much.
Gundlach believes that the dollar may rise by the end of the year.
Since January, Gundlach has advised holding floating-rate corporate bonds, such as bank loans, such as the InvescoSenior Loan (BKLN) ETTF.
"BKLN will basically be a net outflow in 2020 because people think it will be zero for a long time, but now people are starting to change their thinking and think that short-end interest rates will eventually rise. Bank loans have the same or longer maturity than other investment grade bonds, so I prefer bank loans. "
DoubleLine also recently bought European stocks for the first time.
"We have never owned any European stocks. We don't like negative interest rates in Europe, and the eurozone has all sorts of structural problems. DoubleLine's long-term view is that the dollar is weaker, which is a positive for European stocks. "
The performance of European stock markets this year is basically the same or slightly better than that of the US stock market. This is another trend that is changing. Just as the NASDAQ no longer outperformed the S & P 500, all of a sudden, non-American stocks began to rise and European stocks began to outperform slightly. Although it is too early, Gundlach has long been bullish on emerging market stocks.
Edit / Jeffy