Recently, there has been a "surge" in commodities, and market participants have different views on how long the rise in commodity prices will last. Goldman SachsTheir latest forecasts were also given on Monday.

Goldman stressed its previous judgment that there was no need to worry about commodities being affected by the Fed's tough stance or flattening of the yield curve. Goldman Sachs had expected that the April non-farm payrolls report reduced the likelihood that the Fed would cut back on bond purchases by the fourth quarter of this year, but still expected FOMC to start reducing debt early next year.

According to Goldman Sachs, commoditiesIdealThe situation is taking shape. There are still opportunities for commodities over the next 12 months:

"the ideal scenario for commodity asset classes seems to be taking shape on the basis of moderately strong US economic growth, the catch-up of global economic growth (excluding the US), the easing of US wage pressures and the dovish tone of the Federal Reserve."

This environment "is a sweet spot for commodities, with inflation starting to rise and monetary policy not tightening for quite some time". One of the most exaggerated risks in commodities is the rise in long-term interest rates in the US. Raw material prices "will rise further" and more returns are expected in the next 12 months.

First of all, let's focus on oil prices. Goldman Sachs said baseline forecasts for commodity prices included a forecast for Brent crude to rise to $80 a barrel in the third quarter and US natural gas to $3.25 per million British heat in the third quarter.

Goldman Sachs expects the gap in the global oil market, which currently stands at about 1 million barrels a day, to start to widen sharply. OPEC + is expected to keep the fundamentals of the oil market tight in response to weak demand or higher-than-expected growth in Iranian oil production, and oil demand is expected to reach 100m b / d by the end of the year.

Last week, the largest oil product pipeline company in the United States was attacked by blackmail software. Colonial Pipeline, the largest US oil product pipeline company, has confirmed that its industrial control system has been subjected to a cyber attack and involved blackmail software. The company learned of the attack on May 7 and has suspended operations of fuel pipelines on the east coast, affecting gasoline and diesel supplies on the east coast of the United States.

In response, Goldman Sachs said in a report over the weekend that the attack on, Colonial Pipeline Pipeline showed the vulnerability of global energy infrastructure to increasingly frequent attacks. While still sluggish demand and above-average inventories may limit the impact of such events on consumers in the short term, the attacks could be much more damaging once global energy stocks fall below average later this year. That could lead to a sharp rise in prices, as the surge in timber, steel and electricity prices foreshadowed earlier this year during the winter storm.

As for natural gas, Goldman Sachs raised its Dutch equity transfer fund (TTF) natural gas price forecasts for the summer of 2021 and the winter of 2021-22 to $7.80,8.30 per million British heat, respectively, up from $6.30 per million British heat and $6.60 per million British heat.

The price forecast of (TTF) natural gas in the Dutch property rights transfer fund in the summer of 2022 and the winter of 2022-23 will be raised from the previous $6.30 / million British heat and $6.90 / million British heat to $7.90 / million British heat and $9.00 / million British heat.

In the metal market, Goldman Sachs expects the price of nickel to reach $18500 / tonne, $19500 / tonne and $21000 / tonne in 3, 6 and 12 months. Copper prices rose to $11000 a tonne in 12 months. Silver is a more leveraged bet than gold and will follow gold higher, driven by a strong industrial recovery. Gold ETF positions are expected to increase in the second half of this year.