At 20:30 tonight (Friday), the United States will release quarterly payrolls in April and the unemployment rate in April. Recent employment data in the United States confirm that the economy is steadily recovering from the epidemic, which makes many investors look forward to the performance of Friday's non-farm payrolls data.

Job creation in April is expected to grow for the fourth month in a row and is likely to exceed 1 million.

The non-farm growth rate in April is expected to be in the range of 1 million-1.5 million.

At present, the market generally expectsThe number of new non-farm payrolls in April is expected to reach the range of 1 million to 1.5 million, while the unemployment rate is likely to fall to 5.8%.It shows further signs that the deregulation of epidemic prevention restrictions has enabled more people to return to work.

BMO Capital said in its latest research report that eight payrolls data released before Friday's non-farm payrolls data were positive and only three were negative, which is a good sign.

Forecasts from 28 large investment banks show that major investment banks are more optimistic about the growth of non-farm payrolls in April, but there is a wide gap in expectations among investment banks, such as Jeffery's forecast for a surge.210万While Jason Schenker, president and chief economist of Prestige Economics, an Austin research institute, expects an increase70万. It is worth noting thatThe annual rate of the average hourly wage is expected to be negative this time.。

Of the 69 forecasters interviewed by Bloomberg, 33 believe that the increase in non-farm payrolls in April will be greater than or equal to 1 million.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect job creation to reach 1 million in April, and the unemployment rate will fall to 5.8% from 6% in March.

Standard Chartered Bank foreign exchange strategist Steve Englander: us non-farm jobs may exceed 1.5 million in April

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: non-farm workers in the United States are close to 1 million for the rest of this year, and will return to pre-epidemic employment levels by the end of this year.

Goldman Sachs Group: non-agricultural materials increased by 1.3 million in April, and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.5%.

Of course, tonight's data also carries a lower-than-expected risk, although the risk is small.

Of the 79 forecasters interviewed by Englander, only two think the number of new jobs will be less than 800000.Pessimists believe that the reason that non-farmers may not meet expectations tonight is that the employment index of manufacturing PMI has slowed for the fifth month in a row, and the number of first-time jobless claims has not dropped significantly.

But at a time when non-farmers are widely expected to be so beautiful tonight, the key question is, what size of non-farm numbers can scare investors? Will beautiful non-farmers accelerate the Fed's "hawk"?

What kind of non-farm figures will frighten the market tonight?

With concerns about rising inflation growing, some investors believe a very strong job market could be a catalyst for a shift in Fed policy. But the market generally expectsThe Federal Reserve will not adjust because of the creation of 10-1.5 million jobs.。

It has to be mentioned that the recent strong performance of US economic data does not seem to have raised expectations of the Fed tightening monetary policy, as the market believes that the recovery in the United States at this stage is uneven under the impact of the epidemic. The Fed may be forced to maintain loose monetary policy and interest rates close to zero for a longer period of time.

BMO pointed out that even adding more than 1 million jobs may not be enough to "significantly change the current trading situation in the US interest rate market."

Standard Chartered Bank's Steve Englander further said:

An increase of 1.5 million or less is not enough to force the Fed to make a change.

If the number of new non-farm payrolls is between 15 and 2 million, the Fed's view may be uncertain.

If non-farm jobs are added by more than 2 million in April, it will scare investors.It will make them think that the Fed is likely to change its previous QE plan.

How strong will the market be tonight?

1 Treasury yield: do not rule out indifference or reverse market?

Standard Chartered Bank's Steve Englander analysis said that for bond investors, the creation of 10-1.5 million jobs is not a very positive signal. If nothing happens, bond yields may still fall:

If non-farmers increase by more than 2 million tonight, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries will return to more than 1.60%, which may also aggravate the volatility of asset markets in recent months.

But if non-farm jobs are added by less than 1 million tonight, bond yields will fall sharply, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries could fall below 1.5%.

It is worth noting, however, that beautiful US economic data over the past month have not pushed yields higher. Goldman Sachs Group's William Marshall explained in the report thatBecause of the high degree of uncertainty in data expectations, US bond yields are less sensitive to better-than-expected data, so unless market forecasts are more consistent and data volatility returns to normal, yields are likely to remain calm to the data.

Therefore, Marshall believes thatWhile tonight's non-farm data may be extraordinarily good or bad, the possibility of 10-year Treasury yields being indifferent cannot be ruled out.

Analysts at Rabobank even pointed out that US bond yields had risen after the release of the lower-than-expected ADP report, which may implyThe response function of the market has changed:

Today's weak data could have a negative impact on the bond market, as the market sees the bad data as suggesting that centrist Democratic lawmakers will reduce their opposition to the Biden stimulus package. and if the data are better, they are more likely to increase resistance to the Biden administration's massive stimulus package.

Rabobank also pointed out that the reaction of Eurodollar futures also supported the above view.

Foreign exchange: the threshold is too high, don't expect the dollar bulls to be non-farmers tonight?

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at foreign exchange broker OANDA, said that if tonight's non-farm figure exceeds 1.5 million, it could lead to a surge in U.S. bond yields, providing some temporary support for the dollar. But many people now think that the dollar will be painful for a while, because in most casesThe market believes that the Federal Reserve has controlled the yield on U.S. Treasuries.。

Foreign exchange analyst Kathy Lien also believes that the threshold for a full rebound of the dollar is high.

She saidFor the dollar to rebound across the board after the non-farm report, non-farm payrolls would need to exceed 1 million, March data would need to be revised upwards, unemployment would need to fall to 5.8 per cent or lower, and average hourly wage growth would need to be positive. Only when all these conditions are met can the dollar / yen rise to 110 and the euro / dollar fall to 1.20.Especially now that the market generally expects a strong performance in the report.

In addition, at the same time as the non-farm announcement tonight, the Canadian labor market report will also be released.The Canadian dollar material has a strong performance.。Keep a close eye on the US dollar / Canadian dollar and Canadian dollar / yen, which are likely to fluctuate greatly on Friday. For now, it seems that the US dollar / Canadian dollar is about to hit a record for five consecutive weeks of decline.

Specifically, Standard Chartered Bank's Englander believes that:

For the dollar, the addition of more than 2 million non-farm jobs could cause investors to avoid the risk of overheating, thereby helping the dollar.

Non-farm payrolls growth between 900000 and 1.25 million may be the best outcome for emerging markets and commodity currencies, as such data are strong but not enough to change the Fed's dovish stance.

If the US non-farm sector performs too badly, it may call into question the outlook for global economic growth, affecting stock markets and dragging down a range of currencies linked to risk and growth.

3 Gold: the bulls aim at 1850, and the bears are lurking in the resistance zone.

According to Dailyfx analysis, gold highlights its strength after breaking through the levels of $1800 and $1810 at one stroke, and is now in the beginning stage after breaking through the top of the previous range of 1760-1790.The short-term uptrend is hardly over.Gold is expected to further rebound in the afternoon to challenge regional resistance of $1840-$1850.

It is important to note that the $1840-1850 region is the key level of gold's medium-term trend, so volatility is expected to increase further at that time. If gold goes down in the short term, $1800 will be an important support level in the short term.

FXstreet is calledGold bulls aimed at 1850 Magnum context Detector showed that there were very few barriers to breaking through 1850. While the bears are lurking in the resistance structure, the target is around 1807 or 1800.The 50-day moving average around 1835 is expected to limit the upward price of gold, with the most recent support at 1810.

For the specific trend of gold prices in the future, tonight's non-farmers will also have an important impact.

Gold will come under selling pressure if tonight's April non-farm payrolls report exceeds expectations and raises expectations of Fed QE cuts and interest rate hikes. OCBC Bank of Singapore believes that a strong non-farm payrolls data released on Friday (greater than 1 million) could consolidate risk appetite and drive commodity prices to soar. In this case, the price of gold is expected to fall again.

However, the poor performance of the non-farm payrolls report in April could further undermine market expectations of Fed tightening, spurring gold to expand its recent gains. The market is expected to launch an impact to the 1850 level. If the dollar goes down then,Whether the gold price can hold steady at 1820 gambit 25 will test the firmness of the bulls.。

Us stocks: Nasdaq and 10-year Treasury yields are likely to move in the same direction

Given the volatility of labour market data, the report is not expected to dampen optimism in the stock market. ButA sharp increase in employment will lead investors to believe that the economy is overheating and that a strong job market could be a catalyst for the Fed to tighten monetary policy, thus selling stocks.

Luke Tilley, chief analyst at Wilmington Trust, said:

"from the market point of view alone, I think it will be disadvantageous to the market if the number of people employed increases by 1 million in a row. If this continues, the Fed will meet its labor targets much earlier. This will start to panic the markets. "

It is worth noting that there has been a subtle change in the recent trend of US bond yields and technology stocks. For most of this year, US bond yields have been negatively correlated with the NASDAQ, but the opposite has been the case since May.Over the past few trading days, 10-year Treasury yields have moved in the same direction as the Nasdaq.

According to the analysis, what technology stocks are really concerned about now may not be the performance of nominal or real US bond yields, but the indicators of inflation expectations behind them. The specter of inflation is now making the high valuations of these technology stocks unsustainable.

Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said:

While the bond market suggests that technology stocks deserve to perform better, commodities are the ones to listen to, which is a crackdown on technology stocks. Commodities are whispering in the stock market, suggesting that inflation is coming. "

Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, also said:

As economic data continue to show a faster-than-expected recovery, recovery / reflation trading is gaining the upper hand, while expensive growth stocks are a source of funding. Rising inflation expectations suggest confidence in reflation trading is growing. "