Emerging Market Outlook: Amid severe year-to-date low updates, will the first IPO in a long time lead to an improvement in investor sentiment

Fisco Japan · May 25 01:17

■反発のきっかけを逸し年初来安値を連日で更新

今週の新興市場は続落。同時期の騰落率は、日経平均が－0.36％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は－3.17％、グロース市場250指数は－3.92％と新興市場の弱さが目立った。新興市場の決算発表も一巡し、証券会社のレポートが徐々に出始めたことで、見直しの動きが強まる可能性もあったが、グロース市場Core指数構成銘柄などの主力処は総じて弱いまま。グロース市場指数、グロース市場250指数はともに年初来安値を連日で更新した。売買代金を伴い急落するセリングクライマックスは見られず、じりじりと値を下げたことで反発のきっかけを逸した状況といえよう。投資家心理は悪化の一途をたどっており、押し目を入れにくくなっている。

時価総額上位銘柄ではJTOWER＜4485＞が上場来安値を更新したほか、ウェルスナビ＜7342＞が5日続落で年初来安値を更新。カバー＜5253＞、ジーエヌアイグループ＜2160＞、弁護士ドットコム＜6027＞、BASE＜4477＞も年初来安値を更新した。一方、メディアに取り上げられたことなどが材料視されたGENDA＜9166＞が盛り返したほか、シーユーシー＜9158＞は週末、上場来安値更新手前で切り返した。その他の銘柄では、DWTI＜4576＞が無担保社債と新株予約権発行発表に伴い希薄化懸念が先行して売られたほか、日本電解＜5759＞は継続疑義の前提に関する事項で注記を追記したことで5日続落した。一方、エヌビディア決算への思惑が波及したことでKudan＜4425＞、Laboro.AI＜5586＞、エーアイ＜4388＞、キャスター＜9331＞などAI関連銘柄の一角に物色が向かった。

■約1カ月ぶりのIPOが投資家心理改善につながるか

来週の新興市場は、引き続き厳しい地合いが続くと想定する。主力株の多くがじりじりと年初来安値を更新しており、反発のきっかけがつかみにくい。新興市場が活性化するきっかけの一つとして、東京証券取引所が進める「企業統治強化」に注目していたが、5月21日に行われた「市場区分の見直しに関するフォローアップ」のなかで「グロース市場における投資者への情報発信の充実に向けた対応について（案）」を見る限り、目新しい内容とはいいがたい内容だった。グロース市場への影響も限定的だった。東証によるグロース市場の企業統治強化は、反発のきっかけの一つとして期待していただけに、新興市場は一段と厳しい状況に追い込まれたと考える。

一方、来週は28日に学びエイド＜184A＞がグロース市場に上場する。約1カ月ぶりの新規株式公開（IPO）となることから、手掛かり材料に乏しい地合いも影響して、関心は向かいやすいだろう。同社が盛り上がることで直近IPO銘柄にも物色が波及する可能性はある。とりわけ、レジル＜176A＞、トライアルHD＜141A＞、SOLIZE＜5871＞は初値を上回って推移していることから、他のIPO銘柄よりも関心が高まるかもしれない。直近IPO銘柄が賑わうことで、投資家心理が少しでも改善するか注目したい。

■The reason for the backlash was missed and year-to-date lows were updated every day

Emerging markets continued to decline this week. As for the gain/fall rate for the same period, the weakness of emerging markets was conspicuous, with the Nikkei Average being -0.36%, while the growth market index was -3.17% and the growth market 250 index was -3.92%. Financial results announcements for emerging markets also went round, and securities company reports gradually began to come out, so there was a possibility that review movements would intensify, but the main forces such as the Growth Market Core Index constituent stocks remained weak in general. Both the Growth Market Index and the Growth Market 250 Index have updated their year-to-date lows on a daily basis. There was no selling climax where there was a sharp drop along with trading prices, and it can be said that the reason for the backlash was missed by slowly lowering prices. Investor sentiment continues to deteriorate, making it difficult to push in.

Among the top stocks by market capitalization, JTOWER (4485) updated the low price since listing, and Wealth Navi (7342) continued to drop for 5 days and updated the year-to-date low. Cover ＜5253＞, GNI Group ＜2160＞, lawyer.com ＜6027＞, and BASE ＜4477＞ have also updated their year-to-date lows. Meanwhile, GENDA ＜9166＞, which was viewed as material that was picked up by the media, etc., made a comeback, and CUC (9158) switched back over the weekend just before the listing low was updated. As for other stocks, DWTI ＜4576＞ was sold ahead of time due to unsecured corporate bonds and stock acquisition rights issuance announcements, and Nippon Denshi ＜5759＞ continued to decline for 5 days because notes were added on matters relating to the premise of continuing doubts. Meanwhile, speculation about NVIDIA's financial results spread, and the search turned to one corner of AI-related brands such as Kudan ＜4425＞, LaborO.AI ＜5586＞, AI ＜4388＞, and Caster ＜9331＞.

■Will the first IPO in about 1 month lead to an improvement in investor sentiment

It is assumed that emerging markets will continue to be in a difficult position next week. Many of the main stocks are slowly breaking their year-to-date lows, and it is difficult to seize the trigger for a rebound. I was paying attention to the “strengthening of corporate governance” promoted by the Tokyo Stock Exchange as one of the triggers for revitalizing emerging markets, but as far as I looked at “responses aimed at enhancing information dissemination to investors in the growth market (draft)” in the “follow-up on market segment reviews” carried out on 5/21, it was difficult to say that the content was novel. The impact on the growth market was also limited. Since the strengthening of corporate governance in the growth market by the Tokyo Stock Exchange was expected as one of the triggers for a backlash, I think the emerging markets were driven into an even more difficult situation.

Meanwhile, next week, Learning Aid ＜184A＞ will be listed on the Growth Market on the 28th. Since it will be the first initial public offering (IPO) in about 1 month, the lack of clue materials will also have an impact, and it will be easy for interest to rise. There is a possibility that the search will spread to recent IPO stocks due to the company's excitement. Above all, since Regil ＜176A＞, Trial HD ＜141A＞, and SOLIZE ＜5871＞ have moved above initial prices, interest may increase over other IPO stocks. I would like to pay attention to whether investor sentiment will improve even a little due to the recent boom in IPO stocks.

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新興市場見通し：年初来安値更新の厳しい状況のなか、久々のIPOが投資家心理改善につながるか

Emerging Market Outlook: Amid severe year-to-date low updates, will the first IPO in a long time lead to an improvement in investor sentiment

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