The birth and development of an emerging industry is often closely related to people ahead of the times. As early as 30 years ago, Qian Xuesen recognized the trend that electric vehicles would replace internal combustion engine vehicles, and advocated vigorous development of the NEV industry. I didn't expect that today, decades later, Qian Lao's prediction will come true. People who buy fuel vehicles will become a minority, and new energy vehicles will take advantage of the momentum and reverse the oil and electricity balance.
Another city! The penetration rate of new energy insurance broke 50% for the first time
According to data from the Passenger Federation, in the third week of May (13th to 19th), the insurance penetration rate of new energy terminals broke through 50% for the first time, reaching 50.2%, officially surpassing fuel vehicles, indicating that NEVs have established their dominant position in the Chinese automobile market. As of May 19, the total retail sales of new energy vehicles in China in 2024 was 2.883 million units, an increase of 32% over the previous year, accounting for 34% of total automobile sales. On May 1-19, the NEV market retailed 412,000 vehicles, an increase of 26% over the same period last year, and an increase of 10% over the same period last month. Achieve 50% of the national planning target 11 years ahead of schedule. It sounded the countdown to the crisis between fuel vehicles and joint ventures.
In the end of the oil and electricity dispute, the joint fuel venture succumbed steadily
In February 2024, as BYD's trumpet of “electricity is lower than oil” sounded, various giants rushed in response. Changan, Wuling, Geely, Nana, SAIC-GM, and even Beijing Hyundai have announced their entry into the war.
In the Chinese sedan market, Japanese cars have always had a high market share. After all, it is inexpensive, and its durable properties are very suitable for civilian use. However, in the January-April car sales rankings, Japanese models experienced a complete collapse. The first ten Japanese models occupied only one seat. Domestic brands continued to accelerate the transformation of new energy sources. BYD Qin PLUS beat out years of car sales with 15,3803 vehicles to top the list. Furthermore, Corolla and Ralink, who are tied with Sylphy as the “Three Moms of the Road,” did not sell very well. Corolla's four-month record of 36,535 vehicles is not as good as the sales level of Ralink's 26,918 vehicles, which is not as good as the sales volume of Qin PLUS in some single months. Joint venture fuel vehicles, represented by Japanese cars, have collapsed on a large scale.
In addition, according to statistics from the National Information Center, the market share of joint venture brands in China has fallen below 60% since 2022, and declined further to 50.2% in 2023. In 2023, the new energy penetration rate of joint ventures was only 5.1%, far lower than the 59.4% rate of independent brands.
Carrying out a “final attack” on fuel vehicle technology
In the battle of the century between fuel vehicles and new energy, the scale of new energy vehicles will completely surpass fuel vehicles, and China's new energy vehicles will begin to develop from quantity to quality.
In 2024, the application of new energy “800V high voltage platform” technology will also gradually be popularized. The charging speed and range of new energy vehicles will be greatly enhanced, and vehicle costs will also be lower. At the same time, as major OEMs deploy high-voltage overcharging stations one after another, consumers of new energy vehicles will enjoy unprecedented convenience in energy supplementation, and the experience will be more superior.
In addition to innovation at the technical level, intelligence will also become a key word in the development of new energy vehicles. 2024 will be the first year in which urban NOA (Navigation Assisted Driving) and full-scene parking will be fully launched. Not only will it bring consumers a more convenient driving experience, but the cost of transportation will also be effectively reduced. This indicates that competition for new energy vehicles in the field of intelligence will enter a new stage. With the release of the new regulations for L3/L4 autonomous driving on the road in 2023, the responsible parties have been clarified, and the commercialization process of high-level autonomous driving will be further accelerated. It is expected that in 2024, more car companies will join the commercial exploration of L3 autonomous driving, and intelligence will be truly verified as the second half of the NEV competition.
The NEV insurance penetration rate of over 50% is a prominent sign of China's green transportation transformation and an important milestone in the development of the NEV market. More cost-effective, more forward-looking, and more complete energy supplementation systems plus more intelligent travel technology. Seen from these aspects, after new energy vehicles have achieved stage victory in terms of scale, they will launch a final general attack on fuel vehicles in a comprehensive manner around high-quality development.