It's not a stretch to say that Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s (NYSE:HGV) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Hilton Grand Vacations as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will eventually fall in line with most others in the market. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping it doesn't keep underperforming if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's not in favour.
Is There Some Growth For Hilton Grand Vacations?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Hilton Grand Vacations' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 32%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 35% as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 13%, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
In light of this, it's curious that Hilton Grand Vacations' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Hilton Grand Vacations' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Hilton Grand Vacations (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Hilton Grand Vacations. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.