Jinwu Financial News | On May 22, the Hong Kong stock market continued to shrink and consolidate. The Hang Seng Index fell for the second day but did not drop much, falling more than 20 points to close to 19,200 points. Since it is still above the 10-day line (latest report of 19098 points), it is estimated that the high level operating pattern will still be maintained, but if the 10-day line falls, you should be careful and adjust the market. After all, the Hong Kong stock market has been rising for four weeks in a row, and the cumulative rise is close to 3,500 points. The adjustments are also normal and predictable. In fact, as we pointed out, Hong Kong stocks have been falling back to below 20,000 points since the second half of last year. The high interest rate on US federal funds and the entry of a critical moment of economic restructuring in the mainland are all major factors affecting the performance of Hong Kong stocks. Currently, although the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, it is still unknown whether it can be implemented. Although the mainland is strengthening policy support, progress in results remains to be seen. Therefore, until the situation becomes more clear and clear, we estimate that it will still be quite difficult for the Hang Seng Index to rise above 20,000 points and stand firm. In other words, according to the current estimate that it would be difficult for the Hang Seng Index to rise above 20,000 points, then judging from the recent recovery of the Hang Seng Index to close to 20,000 points, this means that Hong Kong stocks have already had a chance to enter a phased higher position level.
The narrow fluctuation in the performance of Hong Kong stocks continued to shrink. The intraday fluctuation was only 211 points. Overall market stability is still OK, but there are signs that the divergence trend is worsening, and the market has begun to enter a stage where stock trading is not market trading. Index stock performance was divided. Among them, Lenovo (00992) partnered with Qualcomm Microsoft to launch AIPC, a next-generation artificial intelligence computer, which is expected to accelerate the company's profit growth in the second half of the year. The news stimulated a volumetric rise in Lenovo's stock price, which rose by 12.18% to a record high of 11.42 yuan at the close. Furthermore, the market reported that banks in the Wuhan region of Hubei have already begun implementing 15% down payments for the first home, but the news has not brought further greater stimulus to domestic housing stocks, which have recently surged. China Overseas (00688) rose slightly by 0.37%, China Resources Land (01109)'s performance remained flat, and Longhu Group (00960) took back down 2.25%.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 19,196 points, down 25 points, or 0.13%. The national index closed at 6818 points, down 3 points, or 0.04%. The Hang Seng Index closed at 3,993 points, up 12 points, or 0.3%. In addition, the main board trading volume of Hong Kong stocks was over $126.6 billion, while the short selling amount was $15.56 billion, or 12.29%. As for the ratio of rising and falling shares, 951:711, there were 44 stocks that rose more than 14% during the day, while 39 stocks fell by more than 10% during the day. The Hong Kong Stock Connect showed a net inflow on the fifth day. On Wednesday, it recorded a net inflow of nearly 1.7 billion yuan.
Author: Ye Shangzhi, First Shanghai Chief Strategist