The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that in recent years, the quality of collection has been improved and expanded. Along with this, the design of collection rules has been continuously improved, and the results are more moderate and predictable. The results of this joint China Mining contract renewal have provided further verification. As the negative effects of traditional product collection are gradually clarified, emerging varieties are rapidly being admitted through collection. The number of surgeries is expected to continue to grow under the combined impetus of factors such as an aging population, increased public health awareness, and more mature procedures. The high-value consumables industry is also expected to continue to flourish on a new base, and the industry's valuation level is expected to pick up. Maintain the additional ratings of Elken Healthcare (01789), Dabo Healthcare (002901.SZ), Microelectrophysiology (688351.SH), Huitai Healthcare (688617.SH), and Cardiac Healthcare (688016.SH).
Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:
The results of the joint procurement contract renewal have been released, and it is expected to be implemented in June. On May 21, 2024, after the expiration of the artificial joint collection agreement of the state organization, a tender was opened in Tianjin. A total of more than 6,000 hospitals participated. According to the National Health Insurance Administration, the results of this round of elections will be implemented nationwide in June 2024.
Guided by the rules, the selection rate in this round of collection increased, and the winning bid price difference narrowed drastically.
Competition in the first round of joint procurement in 2021 was intense, with an average price reduction of 82%, and there was a large difference in winning the bid within the same product system. This rule continues the rule design ideas for coronary stent procurement renewals, spine collection, artificial crystals, and medical transportation in the past year or two, and sets a recovery line, which greatly improves expected stability while ensuring the intensity of competition. First, the rules set up a mechanism for rewards and punishments based on the compliance of the previous round of collection, further increasing the importance of the market within the standard. Guided by the revival line, 54 companies selected 167 products in this collection. The product selection rate was about 92%. The average selected price dropped slightly by about 6%, while the average price difference of the selected products dropped sharply from 2.8 times in the first round to 1.1 times, making the market competition fairer.
Participated in healthy competition among enterprises, and the selection results of leading domestic enterprises were positive.
The two price lines with great reference significance in this collection are the Resurrection Line and the Rule 1b Clause Line (the value is equal to 95% of the Resurrection Line). The Rule 1b clause line is also the “guarantee line” for the distribution of the remaining amount. Judging from the results, most companies use the recovery line as an anchor. The overall bid price range is close to the revival line rather than the Rule 1b clause line. The competition was more benign, and the results were better than expected. Due to the narrowing of the selected price difference, the profit margins that different companies can leave to dealers are close, and the use of the top selected products is more supported by the rules, so it is expected that the slightly lower price and higher ranking products will enjoy a greater competitive advantage during this round of collection.
The selection results of key companies were positive. For example, Elken Medical's entire product line was selected to receive more of its own procurement demand. The winning price of the three key varieties of Tao Dao/Tao Duangju/Knee rose 15%/12%/16% respectively, and as prices leveled off with other companies, there was no competitive disadvantage caused by the first round of collection of low prices, and the market competitiveness and share are expected to further improve; the entire Starfish brand under Weigao Orthopedics won the bid with Rule 1. The Ya Hua brand won the bid with Rule 1 in the Tao Duanju and Knee categories, and both brands are expected to collaborate with each other to win the bid with Rule 1 Seek surplus; Dabo Healthcare's market share The increase clearly entered Group A. The four major product lines were selected according to Rule 1. The joint business is expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate at a low base; Chunli Medical's knee won the bid in this collection, and the knee joint business is expected to recover.
Mining is normalized, rules are predictable, and industry valuation levels are expected to rise.
In recent years, the quality of collection has been improved and expanded. Along with this, the collection rules design have been continuously improved, and the results are more moderate and predictable. The results of this joint national procurement renewal have provided further verification. As the negative effects of traditional product collection are gradually clarified, emerging varieties are rapidly being admitted to hospital through collection. The number of surgeries is expected to continue to grow under the combined impetus of factors such as an aging population, increased public health awareness, and more mature procedures. The high-value consumables industry is also expected to continue to flourish on a new base, and the industry's valuation level is expected to rise. Maintain the additional ratings of Elken Healthcare (01789), Dabo Healthcare (002901.SZ), Microelectrophysiology (688351.SH), Huitai Healthcare (688617.SH), and Cardiac Healthcare (688016.SH).
Risk warning: the increase in the number of surgeries falls short of expectations