The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that the domestic new energy vehicle market maintained smooth operation in April. At the production and sales level, production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April were 870,000 units and 850,000 units, respectively, up 35.9% and 33.5%, respectively, and increased 0.8% and 3.7%, respectively, and the market share reached 36%. Overall, in April '24, the wholesale and retail penetration rate of Xinneng vehicles both increased month-on-month and year-on-year, and the penetration rate of Xinneng vehicles rose steadily. The bank said that the trend of policy decline has been determined. NEVs have completely shifted from being policy-driven to product-driven. In 2024, high-quality models will continue to be launched, and the NEV industry pattern will form a new window.

Minsheng Securities's views are as follows:

In April, the domestic new energy vehicle market maintained smooth operation.

At the production and sales level, production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April were 870,000 units and 850,000 units, respectively, up 35.9% and 33.5%, respectively, and increased 0.8% and 3.7%, respectively, and the market share reached 36.0%. At the level of car companies, BYD's pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drives have consolidated its leading position in new energy brands. At the same time, extended-range electric vehicles represented by Cyrus, Ideal, Changan, and Zero Run performed particularly well. At the product launch level, the market base continues to expand as autonomous vehicle companies combine multiple routes on new energy routes. At the wholesale level, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 785,000 units in April, up 30.0% year on year and down 3.7% month on month; in April, the wholesale penetration rate reached 39.9%, up 6.0 pcts year on year. At the retail level, the NEV market retailed 674,000 vehicles in April, up 28.3% year on year, down 5.7% month on month; retail penetration rate reached 43.7% in April, up 11.7 pcts year on year.

In April, the load volume of power batteries increased by 40.9% year on year and 1.4% month on month.

At the production level, in April, China's power battery production was 78.2 GWh, up 3.2% month-on-month and 60.0% year-on-year. In terms of loading volume, the number of power batteries loaded in April was 35.4 GWh, up 40.9% year on year and 1.4% month on month. At the technical route level, the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries in April was 25.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 48.7%, and a month-on-month increase of 7.8%, accounting for 71.9% of the total loading volume, and the market position is stable. In April, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 9.9 GWh, up 24.1% year on year, down 12.2% month on month, accounting for 28.0% of total vehicle load. At the enterprise level, Ningde Era's vehicle load volume in April was 15.65 GWh, accounting for 44.65%; BYD's April load volume reached 9.95 GWh, accounting for 28.37% of the market. China Innovation Airlines ranked in the TOP3. The monthly loading volume in April was 2.54 GWh, accounting for 7.24% of the market. The total cumulative market share of the top 3 TOP3 was 79.4%.

The construction of charging infrastructure is progressing steadily, and the supporting layout continues to improve.

At the charging infrastructure level, as of April '24, member units within the alliance reported a total of 2.97 million public charging stations, an increase of 68,000 units over March; from May '23 to April '24, an average of about 79,000 new charging stations were added per month; from January to April '24, the charging infrastructure increased by 1.017 million units, and domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 2.52 million units, with an increase of 1:2.5. In terms of charging capacity, the country's total charging capacity in April '24 was about 3.94 billion kilowatts, an increase of 160 million kilowatts over March, an increase of 47.3% year-on-year, and 4.2% month-on-month. Overall, charging infrastructure continues to grow at a high rate. The country's charging power is mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong, Fujian, Henan, and Shanxi provinces. Among the TOP10 regions, Guangdong Province is at the top of the ranking of the number of public charging stations and charging power, while Zhejiang Province is at the top of the list of total power exchange stations. The number of power exchange stations arranged by major power exchange operators continues to increase. In terms of the cumulative quantity structure of charging infrastructure, as of April '24, the cumulative number of charging infrastructures nationwide was 9.613 million units, an increase of 57.8% over the previous year. Among them, the total number of public charging stations was 2.97 million, an increase of 47.0% over the previous year, and the total number of private charging stations built with vehicles was 6.637 million, an increase of 63.2% over the previous year.

Investment advice:

1) The long-term competitive landscape is improving, and there are marginal changes in the short term. Key recommendations: Battery: Ningde Era (300750.SZ); Diaphragm: Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812.SZ); Thermal Management: Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ); High Voltage DC: Hongfa (600885.SH); Film Capacitors: Farah Electronics (600563.SH), it is recommended to focus on China Fused Electric (301031.SZ), etc.

2) 4680 technology iteration to drive industrial chain upgrading. The 4680 can currently achieve 210 Wh/kg. If high nickel 91 series and silicon carbon anodes are used in the future, the system energy density may be close to 270 Wh/kg, and the high nickel thermal management problems can be solved to a great extent. Focus on: large cylindrical housings: Kodaly (002850.SZ), Slack (300382.SZ) and other structural components; high nickel cathodes: Rongbai Technology (688005.SH), Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ), Fangyuan Co., Ltd. (688148.SH), etc.; layout LIFSI: Tianci Materials (002709.SZ), Xinzhoubang (3000S37.Z), and related targets in the field of carbon nanotubes.

3) Optimistic about the booming industrial chain where supply and demand are still tight in 2-3 years. Focus on: diaphragms: Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812.SZ), Xingyuan Material (300568.SZ), etc.; copper foil: NORD shares (600110.SH), Jiayuan Technology (688388.SH), etc.; negative electrodes: Putailai (603659.SH), Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), etc.

4) New technology brings about significant changes in marginal elasticity. Recommended attention: Sodium-ion battery aspects: Chuanyi Technology (002866.SZ), Vico Technology (600152.SH), etc.; composite fluid collection aspects: Baoming Technology (002992.SZ), Dongwei Technology (688700.SH), Yuanchen Technology (688659.SH).

Risk warning: 1) Upstream raw materials rose above expectations; 2) Terminal demand fell short of expectations.