The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongxing Securities released a research report saying that March-April was originally a low season for the express delivery industry, but the volume of items in the industry all surpassed the level of November last year. It can be seen that demand in the industry is currently strong, but the price competition in the industry is still fierce in April. The price of a single ticket dropped from 8.15 yuan/ticket in March to 7.99 yuan/ticket in April, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. At present, the intensity of the price war shown by the express delivery industry is already at a high level, and there is limited room for the intensity to continue to increase. If the price war eases, the performance of related companies will be quite flexible. Although the market generally believes that Shentong and Yunda, which have lower single-ticket profits, are more flexible, the sharp decline in single-ticket revenue means a drop in the pressure on franchisees to pay fees, so when the price war eases, priority is needed to ease the operating pressure on franchisees.
Related targets: On the other hand, Zhongtong and Yuantong, which are more stable on the revenue side, have no related concerns. The easing of the price war will be directly reflected in the increase in headquarters profits, so it is still recommended to focus on industry leaders Zhongtong (02057) and Yuantong (600233.SH).
Dongxing Securities's main views are as follows:
The volume growth rate exceeds market expectations, and the field of low-price parts maintains intense competition
Dongxing Securities believes that March-April was originally a low season for the express delivery industry, but the volume of items in the industry all surpassed the level of November last year. It can be seen that demand in the industry is currently quite strong. The growth rate of all three listed companies in Tongda is higher than the industry average. Yunda's market share increased by about 1.0 pct compared to the same period last year, and Shentong's share increased by about 0.6 pct year on year. SF Express's component volume growth rate increased by 6.1%. Excluding the influence of the Fengfeng network, the year-on-year increase was 17.4%.
In terms of price, price competition in the industry was still fierce in April. The price of a single ticket dropped from 8.15 yuan/ticket in March to 7.99 yuan/ticket in April, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. In terms of listed companies, Shentong, Yunda and Yuantong's single ticket revenue declined by 12.4%, 15.6%, and 3.0% respectively in April. The large decline on the price side indicates that the phenomenon of exchanging price for quantity is still quite common. In particular, price wars are fierce in the field of low-priced items.
Since this year, the single-ticket revenue gap for Tongda Group companies has been quite obvious
Dongxing Securities pointed out that in April, both Shentong and Yunda's single ticket revenue dropped to 2.05 yuan/ticket. Since this year, the revenue levels of the two have converged, indicating that the fields of competition between the two are relatively consistent and are in a state of fierce competition. The single ticket revenue gap between Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda has widened. The relatively low decline in revenue shows that although Yuantong participated in the price war, it was not entirely share-oriented and adopted a strategy of balancing revenue and share.
Cost competition is shrinking marginal benefits, and price wars are forcing enterprises to transform and upgrade
Dongxing Securities said that there was a clear divergence in price trends within Tongda. Referring to the quarterly report, the unit price drop between Yuantong and Zhongtong was significantly lower than that of Shentong and Yunda. Currently, value competition in the field where the lower the price is, the more intense the competition for value. However, due to certain requirements for service quality in middle and high-end e-commerce products, the degree of homogenization has declined, and competition is relatively moderate. “Survive by share, make money by service” may be an industry trend for a long time to come. Competition in the industry will force enterprises to pay attention to service quality and follow the path of transformation and upgrading.
Risk warning: Industry price war intensifies; labor costs rise; policy changes, etc.