Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD (SZSE:000957) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 34% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 16% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

After such a large jump in price, Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 77.1x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 32x and even P/E's below 20x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 41% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 38% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Shares in Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Zhongtong Bus HoldingLTD that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.