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Ferguson (NYSE:FERG) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Ferguson (NYSE:FERG) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

弗格森(紐約證券交易所代碼:FERG)似乎非常明智地使用債務
Simply Wall St ·  05/21 07:42

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Ferguson plc (NYSE:FERG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們注意到,弗格森公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:FERG)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業發展的工具,但如果企業無法還清貸款人,那麼債務就任由他們擺佈。資本主義的重要組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 的過程,在這個過程中,倒閉的企業將被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更常見(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理其債務,並從自己的利益出發。考慮公司的債務水平時,第一步是將其現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Ferguson's Debt?

什麼是弗格森的債務?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Ferguson had debt of US$3.75b at the end of January 2024, a reduction from US$3.99b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$639.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$3.11b.

您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖片顯示,截至2024年1月底,弗格森的債務爲37.5億美元,較一年內的39.9億美元有所減少。另一方面,它擁有6.390億美元的現金,淨負債約爲31.1億美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:FERG Debt to Equity History May 21st 2024
紐約證券交易所:FERG 債務與股本比率歷史記錄 2024 年 5 月 21 日

How Healthy Is Ferguson's Balance Sheet?

弗格森的資產負債表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Ferguson had liabilities of US$4.79b due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.48b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$639.0m in cash and US$3.09b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$6.54b.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,弗格森的負債爲47.9億美元,此後到期的負債爲54.8億美元。與此相抵消的是,它有6.390億美元的現金和30.9億美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額65.4億美元。

Since publicly traded Ferguson shares are worth a very impressive total of US$42.6b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.

由於公開交易的弗格森股票總價值令人印象深刻,達到426億美元,因此這種負債水平似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。但是,我們確實認爲值得關注其資產負債表的實力,因爲它可能會隨着時間的推移而發生變化。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。這樣,我們既考慮債務的絕對數量,也考慮爲債務支付的利率。

Ferguson has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.1. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 14.2 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On the other hand, Ferguson's EBIT dived 10%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ferguson's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

弗格森的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率很低,僅爲1.1。而且其息稅前利潤很容易彌補其利息支出,是其規模的14.2倍。因此,你可以爭辯說,它受到債務的威脅並不比大象受到老鼠的威脅更大。另一方面,弗格森的息稅前利潤比去年下降了10%。我們認爲,這種表現如果經常重演,很可能會給股票帶來困難。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益比什麼都更能決定弗格森未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Ferguson recorded free cash flow worth 59% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在最近三年中,弗格森記錄的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的59%,鑑於自由現金流不包括利息和稅收,這幾乎是正常的。這種自由現金流使公司處於有利地位,可以在適當的時候償還債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

On our analysis Ferguson's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to grow its EBIT. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Ferguson is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with Ferguson , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

根據我們的分析,弗格森的利息保障應該表明其債務不會遇到太多問題。但是,我們的其他觀察結果並不那麼令人鼓舞。例如,它似乎必須努力才能增加息稅前利潤。當我們考慮上述所有要素時,在我們看來,弗格森的債務管理得很好。但要謹慎一點:我們認爲債務水平足夠高,足以證明持續監測是合理的。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。我們已經向弗格森確定了兩個警告信號,了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼請立即查看我們的獨家淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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