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It's Down 28% But TechPrecision Corporation (NASDAQ:TPCS) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Simply Wall St ·  May 21 06:37

TechPrecision Corporation (NASDAQ:TPCS) shares have retraced a considerable 28% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 53% loss during that time.

Following the heavy fall in price, TechPrecision may be sending buy signals at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x, considering almost half of all companies in the Machinery industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 1.5x and even P/S higher than 4x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqCM:TPCS Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 21st 2024

How TechPrecision Has Been Performing

For instance, TechPrecision's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on TechPrecision will be hoping that this isn't the case so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on TechPrecision's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, TechPrecision would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 3.1%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 85% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing that recent medium-term revenue trajectory with the industry's one-year growth forecast of 2.0% shows it's noticeably more attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that TechPrecision's P/S isn't as high compared to that of its industry peers. Apparently some shareholders believe the recent performance has exceeded its limits and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

What Does TechPrecision's P/S Mean For Investors?

TechPrecision's recently weak share price has pulled its P/S back below other Machinery companies. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We're very surprised to see TechPrecision currently trading on a much lower than expected P/S since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider industry forecast. When we see robust revenue growth that outpaces the industry, we presume that there are notable underlying risks to the company's future performance, which is exerting downward pressure on the P/S ratio. While recent revenue trends over the past medium-term suggest that the risk of a price decline is low, investors appear to perceive a likelihood of revenue fluctuations in the future.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for TechPrecision (of which 2 are potentially serious!) you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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