Last week's profit announcement from FitLife Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTLF) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline numbers being robust. Our analysis uncovered some concerning factors that we believe the market might be paying attention to.
Examining Cashflow Against FitLife Brands' Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to March 2024, FitLife Brands recorded an accrual ratio of 0.50. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$9.9m despite its profit of US$7.30m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was US$3.2m a year ago though, so FitLife Brands has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of FitLife Brands.
Our Take On FitLife Brands' Profit Performance
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that FitLife Brands didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that FitLife Brands' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. The silver lining is that its EPS growth over the last year has been really wonderful, even if it's not a perfect measure. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing FitLife Brands at this point in time. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for FitLife Brands (1 is concerning) you should be familiar with.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of FitLife Brands' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.