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The Three-year Underlying Earnings Growth at LBX Pharmacy Chain (SHSE:603883) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time

Simply Wall St ·  May 20 23:52

While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company (SHSE:603883) share price up 11% in a single quarter. It's not great that the stock is down over the last three years. But that's not so bad when you consider its market is down 16%.

After losing 4.3% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, LBX Pharmacy Chain actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 10% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

With a rather small yield of just 1.5% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. Revenue is actually up 18% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching LBX Pharmacy Chain more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:603883 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 21st 2024

LBX Pharmacy Chain is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think LBX Pharmacy Chain will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, LBX Pharmacy Chain's TSR for the last 3 years was -14%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that LBX Pharmacy Chain has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 3.6% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 1.6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand LBX Pharmacy Chain better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for LBX Pharmacy Chain that you should be aware of before investing here.

We will like LBX Pharmacy Chain better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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