Jinwu Financial News | CMB International said that the recent introduction of a series of easing policies mainly includes the central bank lowering the minimum down payment ratio to a record low (15% for the first set, 25% for the second set), which may marginally boost real estate sales, but based on the fact that long-term expectations have not changed — the population may continue to decline, real estate inventories are still high, and the downward trend in housing prices is difficult to reverse, the bank believes that the amplitude and effect of the previous downward cycle may be weaker than the effect of the previous downward cycle.
Overall, in the short term, the bank believes that the sector may face some profit settlements, because the sector has continued to fluctuate upward for more than a month, but fundamentals have not improved accordingly, and the amount of the current 300 billion yuan reloan plan is lower than the market's previous 1 trillion yuan expectations. Looking at the medium to long term, the bank believes that the industry will continue its recovery trend. Based on a positive shift in top-level policy tone (inventory removal first), the bank believes that even if the current policy is difficult, supplementary policies will be introduced to promote the achievement of inventory removal goals, and ultimately show signs of improvement in the fundamentals of the industry. As the valuation of the industry is still relatively low, the bank advises investors to buy high-quality products on dips. In terms of stock selection, the bank favors property management companies that benefit from the stock market, such as China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), Poly Industries (06049), and Wanwuyun (02602), as well as the intermediary Shell (02423) and the contract construction company Greentown Management (09979); the developer recommended China Resources Land (01109), which has long-term holding value.