Jinwu Financial News | According to Guoxin Securities Research, due to the external environment, the 2023H2 catering industry is generally facing growth pressure. According to Guoxin social service tracking, the 2023H2 hot pot circuit generally recovered to 80% in the same period in 2022, while the year-on-year recovery rate of Haidilao (06862) bucked the trend and increased month by month (the year-on-year recovery rate from July to December '23 was 120%/130%/128%/140%/200%), Haidilao's revenue in 2023 (41.6 billion yuan, same unit profit) and net profit (4.5 billion yuan) Create A new high since listing.
According to the bank, under relatively neutral same-store growth and prudent store opening prospects, the bank temporarily maintained net profit of 51.7/57.4/6.33 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding growth rate of 15%/11%/10%, and dynamic PE of 19.7/17.8/16.1x. With outstanding operating results in 2023, the company proved to the market its leading ability to regulate operations in a weak market environment. Since 2024, the company's operations have continued to show high prosperity against industry trends, and performance visibility is high. The bank believes that the company should enjoy a definitive valuation premium in the catering sector.
The bank said that looking forward to the future, the bank is still optimistic about the potential for the turnover rate to continue to rise in 2024 after the subjective activism of store operations is stimulated. Furthermore, the bank suggests prudently and optimistically tracking the company's franchise model, new store model trials, and active exploration of secondary brands. In the future, one of these links is expected to form growth points that exceed expectations. The company's sharp increase in dividend rate in 2023 brought a higher dividend rate (corresponding to the current stock price of 3.9%), which also helped to enhance the company's investment attractiveness from another latitude. The company's “buy” rating was maintained based on various comparisons.