Jinwu Financial News | According to BOC International Development Research Report, NIO (09866) released the sub-brand Ledao, the first L60 positioning smart electric SUV for home use. Delivery began in September. The pre-sale price is 21,900 yuan. The bank believes that the pre-sale price is lower than expected. According to the bank's estimate, the L60BOM cost is around 140,000. Generally, the final listing price will be 5,000 to 10,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price. At the same time, the pricing of the BaaS plan has not been officially announced, and the final BaaS plan will have a big impact on sales.
The bank believes that the Ledao L60 has a unique energy supplementation experience, including slow charging, fast charging, and power exchange. The charging experience is the biggest differentiating highlight of the Ledao L60 within 200,000 yuan. The bank predicts that steady monthly sales will be at the level of 9,000 to 10,000 units, which will be the key driver for NIO's sales to enter the second growth curve.
The bank raised its 2025/26 revenue forecast by 13%/21% to reflect the bank's upward sales expectations for music. The bank predicts that NIO's total sales volume will increase by 57.6%/22.0% to 300,000 units or 370,000 units in 2025/26. NIO's monthly delivery sales volume for the 2-3 quarter will be a short-term stock price driver. We learned from the channel that the discount on exhibition vehicles and the BaaS offer to buy 4 years and get 1 year free had a positive impact on order growth, and the May-June delivery is expected to continue to improve to the level of 20,000 units month-on-month. At the same time, the bank believes that music will be the main driving factor in the second half of the year. Next year, NIO + Music Dao's monthly sales volume is expected to remain stable at the level of 25,000 to 30,000 units, which is beneficial to valuation repair. Based on the 2024 forecast market sales ratio of 1.5 times, the target price was raised to HK$59.88/$7.7 (NIO US) (previously HK$40.3/ US$5.1). NIO's current stock price corresponds to 1.13 times the 2024 forecast market-sales rate. It already reflects some negative long-term loss factors, and the bank upgraded its rating to buying.