What's even worse is that investors didn't even notice that the data had been released, and there were no sharp fluctuations in the market during this period. Analysts believe that if investors are aware that the data is being released ahead of time, 30 minutes will still be enough time for them to respond.
After learning about it, the US CPI data release, which attracted worldwide attention, was actually met with a “big mess.”
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its latest statement that before the April CPI and actual earnings data were officially released, the bureau “accidentally uploaded some documents to the website about 30 minutes in advance.”
As the main government agency responsible for publishing monthly US consumer price data, BLS usually releases CPI data on time at 8:30 a.m. Washington time (8:30 p.m. Beijing time) and adopts strict agreements to prevent data from being leaked early.
What's even more surprising is that the market, which has always been quick to respond, doesn't even realize it.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the US core CPI fell for the first time in six months, opening the door for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the year. After the media reported the official CPI data, US stock index futures jumped, US bond yields declined, and the S&P 500 index finally reached a record high.
However, half an hour before the data was officially released, there were no sharp fluctuations in the market, which indicates that the early release did not attract investors' attention.
Mingze Wu, currency trader at StoneX Financial, said:
I doubt the market is not trading based on this early announcement.
However, Wu pointed out that if investors were aware that the data was released ahead of time, 30 minutes would still be enough time for them to respond to this information.
In fact, this isn't the first time BLS has had problems publishing data. A month ago, media reports said that an economist at the bureau had communicated with large financial institutions such as J.P. Morgan Chase and BlackRock on a key inflation indicator, which raised questions about fair access to data.
In December 2022, when the inflation data was better than expected, US bond futures rose rapidly before the BLS released the data, and outsiders feared that the data had been leaked before the official release.
BLS said it has initiated a full investigation into the incident to ensure that such a situation does not happen again. Given all that has happened before, this undoubtedly once again calls into question the control ability of this government agency responsible for publishing important economic data.
Although the unexpected early release did not immediately trigger a sharp reaction from the market, analysts said that this may still prompt relevant departments to further examine the release process and information control measures for key data such as CPI, because these data have a significant impact on global asset price trends and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.