The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Securities released a research report saying that the current strong fishery price trend is not only the result of a mismatch between seasonal supply and demand, but also due to the continuous decline in seed investment, continued digestion in storage tanks, and a gradual decrease in overall supply pressure after a long period of downturn. Looking ahead to the future market, there is a high probability that aquaculture prices will continue to strengthen due to low storage and strong demand for major aquatic products; farmers are more motivated to invest in seedlings and feed, which is expected to benefit subsequent aquatic feed sales. The focus is on Haida Group (002311.SZ), and it is recommended to focus on Guangdong Feed (001313.SZ).

The main views of Guolian Securities are as follows:

Grass carp storage has gradually declined, and prices have rebounded at the bottom

In the week of May 10, the national average price of Caoyutangkou was 6.4 yuan/kg, +3% month-on-month and +8% year-on-year. Grass carp prices began to rise continuously in late March. The reason for this is that ① the market has been sluggish in the past two years, the enthusiasm of farmers to invest in seedlings has dropped significantly; ② pond fish have gradually been digested. Currently, pond storage is low. 2-3 percent of cistern in Guangdong, 2-3 percent in Guangxi, and few in central China; ③ diseases are frequent due to torrential rain, and pond fish losses are high. Looking ahead to the future market, early seedlings are low and the breeding cycle is long (seedlings - adult fish is about 2 years), the current supply of grass carp will still be tight, and there is still room for growth in the price of grass carp due to the recovery in consumption.

The price of carp/crucian carp is at the highest level in 5 years

The average price of carp ponds nationwide for the week of May 10 was 7.2 yuan/kg, +3.4% month-on-month and +33% year-on-year. The overall price of carp has shown an upward trend since the beginning of the year, and the current price is the second highest level in 5 years, which is only lower than 2021 (non-plague period). Looking at storage ponds, less than 10% of carp ponds are stored in Henan, and there are almost no adult fish in storage ponds in Jiangsu. The national average price of crucian carp in the week of May 10 was 9.5 yuan/kg, +2.6% month-on-month and +13% year-on-year. Looking at storage tanks, there are almost no storage ponds in the Jiangsu region recently. About 30% of crucian carp storage ponds are in Zhejiang. Storage ponds are low and crucian carp circulation is good, so prices are still expected to rise in the future.

The price of tilapia rose to the highest level in 5 years

The average price of tilapia fish ponds nationwide for the week of May 10 was 6 yuan/kg, +0.5% month-on-month and +33% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, the overall trend in tilapia prices has been strong. It is mainly due to the fact that after early losses, some farmers switched to other varieties, and the original farmers sold fewer seedlings. As a result, storage ponds were low during the current period, and there was a general shortage of fish in the market. Looking ahead to the future market, the peak of tilapia production in the current period was concentrated in August/September. Tilapia prices may have been strong during this period due to lack of supply.

California perch prices have risen at the bottom, and the subsequent market is worth looking forward to

The average price of California perch ponds for the week of May 10 was 17 yuan/kg, +7.9% month-on-month and +31% year-on-year. According to Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, ① the amount of salmon seedlings invested in California is expected to decrease by more than 30% nationwide; ② the anti-season (autumn seedlings) in southern China has been determined to be reduced by 60%; the first batch of early seedlings has been reduced by 50%; and the mid-end batch conversion, abandonment, and density reduction is expected to be reduced by more than 30%; ③ East China and central China are expected to reduce seeding by more than 30%. Overall, bass farming capacity will shrink in 2024, and it is expected that the subsequent market will still be worth looking forward to.

Pond digestion has led to a recovery in raw fish prices, and prawn prices are still sluggish

In the week of May 10, the national raw fish pond price was 7 yuan/kg, +0% month-on-month and -1% year-on-year. About 30% of ponds are stored in Guangdong, and farmers are unwilling to invest in seedlings. Recently, storage has continued to decline, market circulation has increased, processing plants have harvested more fish, and prices have rebounded from the bottom. In the week of May 10, the national price of South American white prawn pond was 21.3 yuan/kg, -8.7% month-on-month and -24% year-on-year. There are still too many shrimp stocks, consumption is sluggish, and prices continue to drop.

Risk warning: Risks caused by fluctuations in aquatic product prices, risk of aquaculture animal diseases and natural disasters, risk of price fluctuations of major raw materials.