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【特约大V】邓声兴:估计联储局推迟到9月才开始减息 建议关注公用股

[Special Offer V] Deng Shengxing: It is estimated that the Federal Reserve will postpone interest rate cuts until September, and suggests focusing on public stocks

金吾財訊 ·  May 15 21:42

Jinwu Financial News | The Hang Seng Index is closed all day on Wednesday (15th) for Buddha's birthday holiday. The Hang Seng Index closed at 19073 points on Tuesday (14th), down 41 points or 0.2%, and traded 143.085 billion yuan throughout the day. The national index fell 0.3% to 6741; the technical index rose 0.6% to close at 4041. Yao Ming Kangde (02359) rose 3.8% to become the biggest blue chip increase; Yao Ming Biotech (02269) rebounded 2.5%; Tencent (00700) and Alibaba (09988) showed results, and Tencent rose 1%; domestic housing stocks: Agile (03383) was not expected to be able to meet all payment obligations for overseas debts, and jumped 12.9% throughout the day;

The Dow closed at 39,908 points on Wednesday (15th), up 349 points, or 0.88%; the index rose 1.17% to 5,308 points; the NASDAQ surged 1.4% to 16,742 points; and the Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, rose slightly by 0.03%. European stocks remained stable, with British, French and German stocks rising 0.21%, 0.17% and 0.82% respectively. Among individual stocks, Apple and Nvidia (Nvidia) shares rose 1.2% and 3.6%, respectively, while Microsoft rose 1.8%; Tesla (Tesla) and Amazon reversed the market and fell 2% and 0.6%. “Meme stocks” rebounded sharply after rising for two consecutive days. GameStop and AMC stock prices plummeted by 18.9% and 20%, respectively. Disney fell 2.5%, and Boeing returned 2.1% as the worst-performing Dow constituent stock. The Asia-Pacific stock market moved individually this morning (16th). The Nikkei 225 Index now reports 38,581 points, up 195 points, or 0.51%. The South Korea Composite Index is now 2,764 points, up 36 points, or 1.35%. It is estimated that the Federal Reserve will not start cutting interest rates until September; it is recommended to focus on public stocks.

Market Focus: Alibaba-SW (9988)

Alibaba (9988) released the 2024 financial year (April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024) results report. In the previous fiscal year, Alibaba achieved annual revenue of 941,168 billion yuan (RMB, same below), up 8% year on year; operating profit of 100.351 billion yuan, up 13% year on year; adjusted EBITDA of 175.71 billion yuan, up 9% year on year. Furthermore, businesses other than local e-commerce have also synchronized new developments in their reforms and changes through performance. Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 25.6 billion yuan, up 3% year over year. Revenue related to artificial intelligence accelerated during the quarter and continued to grow by three digits. Thanks to investment in public clouds and improvements in operational efficiency, the adjusted EBITDA for cloud computing increased by 45% to reach 1.4 billion yuan. In March 2024, Taobao Tmall GMV increased 14% year over year, exceeding Pinduoduo's 13% year-on-year increase. At a time when the e-commerce penetration rate is already so high, Taobao's Tmall GMV growth rate overtook Pinduoduo in the first quarter of this year, and has more steadily taken a leading position in domestic e-commerce. At the same time, it also means that Taobao and Tmall are regaining more and more market share, and it is worth paying attention to in the medium to long term.

Target price is $92, stop loss price is $76.

(The author is the Chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Stock Analysts and the author does not hold the above shares)

Author: Dr. Tang Sheng-hing, Chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Equities Analysts

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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