EXCLUSIVE: The Fed Should Cut Interest Rates Using Proven Fiscal Rule, Economic Expert Says
EXCLUSIVE: The Fed Should Cut Interest Rates Using Proven Fiscal Rule, Economic Expert Says
Blu Putnam, the former chief economist at the CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) joined Benzinga's PreMarket Prep Wednesday morning to help dissect April's inflation report.
芝加哥商品交易所集團公司（納斯達克股票代碼：CME）前首席經濟學家布魯·普特南週三上午加入了本辛加的盤前預備會議，以幫助剖析4月份的通脹報告。
The CPI numbers showed lower-than-expected inflation growth in the previous month, helping spark a rally in the S&P 500 Index Trust (NYSE:SPDR) and the overall market.
Putnam argued that based on the Taylor Rule the Federal Reserve should start cutting interest rates. Hotter inflation reports in previous months have shifted the interest rate outlook, with initial market projections of four to five interest rate cuts in 2024 dropping to one to two.
What Is the Taylor Rule? The Taylor Rule, named after Stanford University economist John Taylor, is a formula that helps determine whether the central bank should cut or raise interest rates based on inflation and economic growth.
消費者價格指數數據顯示上個月的通貨膨脹增長低於預期，這有助於引發標準普爾500指數信託基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPDR）和整個市場的上漲。
普特南認爲，根據泰勒規則，聯儲局應該開始降息。前幾個月更熱的通脹報告改變了利率前景，最初的市場預測是2024年四到五次降息降至一到兩次。
什麼是泰勒規則？泰勒規則以斯坦福大學經濟學家約翰·泰勒的名字命名，該公式有助於確定央行是否應根據通貨膨脹和經濟增長降低或提高利率。
"The Taylor rule says that the Fed has a dual mandate they have to trade off unemployment and inflation," Putnam said. "The Taylor rule basically takes unemployment at its trend rate... at unemployment we're kind of checking the box, we're not going up and it's not going down. Inflation has come down a lot and it's below the federal funds rate, so you know the Taylor rule says sure the unemployment rate is low but inflation has come down well below Federal fund rates, so let's cut rates."
普特南說：“泰勒規則規定，聯儲局有雙重授權，他們必須在失業和通貨膨脹之間進行權衡。”“泰勒規則基本上以趨勢率計算失業率... 在失業率下，我們是在勾選方框，我們沒有上升，也不會下降。通貨膨脹率已經下降了很多，低於聯邦基金利率，所以你知道泰勒規則說失業率肯定很低，但通貨膨脹率已經下降了遠低於聯邦基金利率，所以讓我們降息吧。”
Putnam went on to say that a few small interest rate cuts shouldn't have a drastic impact on inflation. Right now, CME's Fed Watch Tool shows that it's likely that the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year.
普特南接着說，幾次小幅降息不應該對通貨膨脹產生巨大影響。目前，芝加哥商品交易所的聯儲局觀察工具顯示，聯儲局很可能會在年底之前將利率下調50個點子。
Despite April's lower inflation report reigniting hopes that the Fed will indeed be able to cut multiple times this year, many interest rate-sensitive sectors lagged the overall market in Wednesday's session. For example, the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) were in the green but were underperforming the S&P 500 Wednesday afternoon.
儘管4月份較低的通脹報告重新點燃了人們對聯儲局今年確實能夠多次削減的希望，但許多對利率敏感的板塊在週三的交易中落後於整個市場。例如，景順太陽能ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：TAN）和SPDR標準普爾地區銀行ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：KRE）上漲，但週三下午表現低於標準普爾500指數。
To watch Putnam's full interview on PreMarket Prep, click here.
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要觀看 Putnam 在 PreMarket Prep 上的完整採訪，請點擊此處。
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Image: BluPutnam/Linkedin DenysNevozhai/Unsplash
圖片：bluputnam/Linkedin denysnevozhai/unsplash