3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath ~ the situation where increases and decreases due to interest rate warnings continues

Fisco Japan · May 14 23:27

15日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は続伸、金利警戒で上げ幅縮小する地合いが続く

・ドル・円は下げ渋り、米金利にらみ

・値上り寄与トップは東エレク＜8035＞、同2位はアドバンテスト＜6857＞

■日経平均は続伸、金利警戒で上げ幅縮小する地合いが続く

日経平均は続伸。前日比135.09円高（＋0.35％）の38491.15円（出来高概算11億4000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

14日の米国株式市場は上昇。ダウ平均は126.60ドル高（＋0.32％）の39558.11ドル、ナスダックは122.94ポイント高（＋0.75％）の16511.18、S&P500は25.26ポイント高（＋0.48％）の5246.68で取引を終了した。予想を上回った4月生産者物価指数（PPI）を受け、まちまちで寄り付いた。利下げ観測の後退が重しとなり伸び悩んだが、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）のパウエル議長がイベントでインフレの改善があまり見られず高金利で据え置く姿勢を示したが利上げの可能性を予想していないと再表明、さらに4月消費者物価指数（CPI）の鈍化の思惑が買い材料となり相場は上昇。長期金利の低下で特にハイテク中心に買われ相場を一段と押し上げた。終盤にかけ上げ幅を拡大し、ナスダックは過去最高値で終了。

米国株が上昇したことから、東京市場は買い優勢で取引を開始した。寄付きから決算発表銘柄を対象とした物色が広がり、前場のプライム市場の売買代金は2.6兆円と商いは活況。一方、日経平均は一時38816.60円まで上げ幅を拡大する場面が見られたものの、買い一巡後は足元の金利高への警戒などから上げ幅を縮小。25日移動平均線が位置する38431円水準が意識されて前引けを迎えた。

日経平均採用銘柄では、好業績と株主還元策が材料視されて三越伊勢丹＜3099＞が急騰したほか、自社株買いの取得枠設定や中期計画などがポジティブ視されたソニーグループ＜6758＞も大幅高。また、三住トラスト＜8309＞、アマダ＜6113＞、横浜ゴム＜5101＞、太平洋セメント＜5233＞、三菱重＜7011＞が買われた。

一方、前期実績、今期見通しともに市場予想を下振れたニトリHD＜9843＞が急落したほか、カシオ＜6952＞、出光興産＜5019＞、コニカミノルタ＜4902＞、電通グループ＜4324＞、荏原製作所＜6361＞も決算が嫌気されて売られた。

業種別では、ゴム製品、精密機器、電気機器、輸送用機器、鉱業、銀行業などが上昇した一方、石油・石炭製品、繊維製品、不動産業、電気・ガス業、陸運業などが下落した。

決算発表は本日ピークを迎える。後場も引き続き取引時間中に発表される決算銘柄に関心は向かおう。12時台には、エーザイ＜4523＞、DIC＜4631＞、コナカ＜7494＞、13時台には、亀田菓＜2220＞、大王紙＜3880＞、三井化学＜4183＞、三菱ケミカルグループ＜4188＞、TOW＜4767＞、WOWOW＜4839＞、フマキラー＜4998＞、14時台には、昭和化＜4990＞、バンドー＜5195＞、日本コン＜5269＞、日軽金HD＜5703＞、GSIクレオス＜8101＞などが予定されている。

■ドル・円は下げ渋り、米金利にらみ

15日午前の東京市場でドル・円は下げ渋り、156円56銭から156円31銭まで下落後は値を戻す展開となった。米10年債利回りの前日の低下でドルは売りが強まったが、足元は下げ一服。一方、日経平均株価は堅調地合いを維持し日本株高が好感された。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は156円31銭から156円56銭、ユーロ・円は169円08銭から169円36銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0813ドルから1.0826ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・マーケットエンタープライズ＜3135＞、ｉ－ｐｌｕｇ＜4177＞など、9銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上り寄与トップは東エレク＜8035＞、同2位はアドバンテスト＜6857＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・米・4月生産者物価指数：前月比＋0.5％（予想：+0.3％、3月：－0.1％←+0.2％）

・米・4月生産者物価コア指数：前月比＋0.5％（予想：+0.2％、3月：－0.1％←+0.2％

・米・4月生産者物価指数：前年比＋2.2％（予想：+2.2％、3月：＋1.8％←+2.1％）

・米・4月生産者物価コア指数：前年比＋2.4％（予想：+2.3％、3月：+2.1％←+2.4％）

【要人発言】

・シュミッド米カンザスシティ連銀総裁

「金利はしばらく高止まりの可能性がある」

「インフレ率は依然として高すぎる」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・特になし

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 15th.

・The Nikkei Average continues to rise, and the rate of increase and decrease due to interest rate vigilance continues

・The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, looking at US interest rates

・East Elec ＜8035＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and Advantest ＜6857＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average continues to rise, and the trend of rising and shrinking due to interest rate warnings continues

The Nikkei Average continues to rise. The front-end transaction was closed at 38491.15 yen (estimated volume of 1.14 billion shares), which was 135.09 yen higher (+0.35%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market rose on the 14th. The Dow average closed at 39558.11 dollars with a 126.60 dollar increase (+ 0.32%), the Nasdaq closed at 16511.18 with a 122.94 point increase (+ 0.75%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5246.68 with a 25.26 point increase (+ 0.48%). It received the April Producer Price Index (PPI), which exceeded expectations, and there were mixed feelings. Growth was sluggish due to the recession in interest rate cut observations, but Chairman Powell of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) showed an attitude of leaving inflation unchanged at high interest rates at the event, but he re-stated that he did not anticipate the possibility of interest rate hikes, and furthermore, speculation of a slowdown in the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) became buying material, and the market price rose. Due to the decline in long-term interest rates, it was bought by high-tech centers in particular, which further boosted the market price. The lift range expanded at the end of the game, and the NASDAQ ended at a record high.

Since US stocks rose, the Tokyo market began trading with a buying advantage. Searches targeting stocks that have announced financial results have expanded since donations, and sales are booming with trading prices of 2.6 trillion yen on the front market prime market. Meanwhile, there was a scene where the increase in the Nikkei Average temporarily expanded to 38816.60 yen, but after a round of buying, the increase was reduced due to caution against current high interest rates, etc. They were aware of the 38431 yen level where the 25th moving average is located, and a preemptive close was reached.

In the stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099) skyrocketed due to strong performance and shareholder return measures, and the Sony Group (6758), which was viewed positively by setting acquisition quotas and medium-term plans for share buybacks, was also significantly higher. Also, Misumi Trust ＜8309＞, Amada ＜6113＞, Yokohama Rubber ＜5101＞, Taiheiyo Cement ＜5233＞, and Mitsubishi Heavy ＜7011＞ were bought.

Meanwhile, NITORI HD ＜9843＞, which fell short of market expectations in terms of both previous fiscal year results and current fiscal year forecasts, and Casio ＜6952＞, Idemitsu Kosan ＜5019＞, Konica Minolta ＜4902＞, Dentsu Group ＜4324＞, and Ebara Seisakusho (6361) were also sold disgusted by financial results.

By industry, rubber products, precision equipment, electrical equipment, transportation equipment, mining, banking, etc. rose, while petroleum and coal products, textile products, real estate, electric/gas, land transportation, etc. declined.

Financial results announcements will peak today. Let's turn our interest in financial stocks that will continue to be announced during trading hours in the later stages. At 12:00, Eisai ＜4523＞, DIC ＜4631＞, Konaka ＜7494＞, and at 13:00, Kameda Confectionery ＜2220＞, Daio Paper ＜3880＞, Mitsui Chemicals ＜4183＞, Mitsubishi Chemical Group ＜4188＞, TOW ＜4767＞, WOWOW ＜4839＞, Fumakira ＜4998＞, and at 14:00, Showa Ka ＜4990＞, Bando ＜5195＞, Nippon Con ＜5269＞, Nikkikin ＜703＞ >, GSI Creos <8101 > etc. are planned.

■The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, looking at US interest rates

The dollar and yen were reluctant to decline in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 15th, and after falling from 156 yen 56 yen to 156 yen 31 yen, the value returned. Dollar sales strengthened due to the decline in US 10-year bond yields the day before, but the current decline has taken a break. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Stock Average maintained a steady position, and Japanese stock prices were well received.

The trading range up to this point is the dollar and yen from 156 yen 31 yen to 156 yen 56 sen, the euro yen from 169 yen 08 yen to 169 yen 36 sen, and the euro dollar from 1.0813 dollars to 1.0826 dollars.

■Backstage check stocks

・9 stocks, such as Market Enterprise ＜3135＞ and i-PLUG ＜4177＞, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・East Elec ＜8035＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and Advantest ＜6857＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・US-April Producer Price Index: +0.5% compared to the previous month (forecast: +0.3%, March: -0.1% ← +0.2%)

・US-April Producer Price Core Index: +0.5% compared to the previous month (forecast: +0.2%, March: -0.1% ← +0.2%

・US-April Producer Price Index: +2.2% compared to the previous year (forecast: +2.2%, March: +1.8% ← +2.1%)

・US-April Producer Price Core Index: +2.4% compared to the previous year (forecast: +2.3%, March: +2.1% ← +2.4%)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・U.S. Kansas City Fed President Schmid

“There is a possibility that interest rates will remain high for a while”

“Inflation is still too high”

＜Domestic＞

・Nothing in particular

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～金利警戒で上げ幅縮小する地合いが続く

3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath ~ the situation where increases and decreases due to interest rate warnings continues

Risk Disclaimer

Statement