Jinwu Financial News | According to Cinda Securities Research Report, Zhongtong Express (02057) focuses heavily on domestic e-commerce express delivery services and moderately expands the integrated logistics ecosystem. Empowered by two-way asset layout and management capabilities, it leads the e-commerce express delivery industry in profit and cash, and has increased dividends and repurchases accordingly.
The bank believes that the essence of Zhongtong's “three-network superposition” strategy is based on the upgrading of route planning capabilities based on large volume and scale. It is expected that based on the company's own scale effects and operational efficiency advantages, the frequency of sorting and transportation will be reduced through direct trunk lines, thereby further optimizing single ticket sorting and trunk line transportation costs.
Considering the stability of the competitive order of the industry, the steady increase in the company's volume share, and the decline in the core cost of a single ticket, the bank expects the company's net profit to be 10.526 billion yuan, 12.210 billion yuan, and 13.655 billion yuan respectively in 2024 to 2026, up 20.3%, 14.1%, and 13.7%, respectively. Zhongtong Express is the leading e-commerce express delivery company in China. In the context of the industry entering a stage of high-quality development and maintaining a stable competitive order, it is expected to achieve steady growth in volume and profit with its own scale, assets and management advantages. Furthermore, the company's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Standard is expected to usher in improved liquidity. According to the bank's profit forecast, the company's 2023-2026 net profit compound growth rate is 16.0%. Taking into account PEG's valuation and historical valuation situation, it corresponds to net profit of 10.526 billion yuan in 24 years, giving it a 15-fold price-earnings ratio center. The target market value is 157.9 billion yuan (equivalent to HK$173.8 billion), which covered the “buy” rating for the first time.