The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600010) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union had debt of CN¥50.4b, up from CN¥42.2b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥8.16b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥42.3b.
How Strong Is Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union had liabilities of CN¥66.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥24.9b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥8.16b and CN¥13.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥69.3b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥72.2b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.8), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.2 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 164%, over the last 12 months. If it can keep walking that path it will be in a position to shed its debt with relative ease. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 78% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
We feel some trepidation about Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union's difficulty interest cover, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.