Tianfeng Securities predicts that Ideal Automobile-W (02015) will sell 600,000 to 650,000 units this year, of which the L789 may return to 30-35,000 monthly sales, the L6 is expected to be above 1.5w, and the remaining three pure electric models are expected to be launched on the H2.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the Ideal Automobile-W (02015) “buy” rating, with an estimated revenue of 1809/25.5 billion yuan for 24/25, adjusted net profit of 15.9 billion yuan for 24 years, and a target price of HK$155.
According to the report, Ideal has faced major fluctuations and adjustments recently. The bank believes that the core reason is that Q1's off-season sales volume and the new pure electric platform Mega fell short of expectations; the bank judged the market or judged the ideal annual sales volume and profit with excessive pessimism, and there was a misjudgment about the deterioration of the competitive pattern (the ideal market share did not decline significantly). The bank determined that as 2QL6 climbs, the ideal market share is expected to increase further. The bank expects to sell 600,000 to 650,000 vehicles this year, of which the L789 may return to 30-35,000 monthly sales, the L6 is expected to exceed 1.5w, and the remaining three pure electric models are expected to be launched on the H2. Take into account the uncertainty of the economic situation, competition or intensification in the industry, and model price reductions.
For the company's 24 years of intelligence: promoting or speeding up urban NOA and increasing horsepower investment in intelligent research and development! Ideal is increasing its investment to make up for the shortcomings in intelligence. The goal is to expand the size of the Ideal Smart Driving R&D team from about 900 people to more than 2,500 people in 25 years. The bank determined that under the trend of accelerated maturity of capabilities such as ideal BEV models, TIN networks, and NPN characteristics, there may be potential to speed up the catch up with first-tier rivals Huawei and Xiaopeng in intelligent driving.
The bank believes that the ideal advantages are: 1) an intelligent driving hardware platform with a unified system of the L platform and its huge scale effect; 2) full-stack self-development capabilities and stable R&D investment supported by strong cash flow. Although the current pace of advancement of autonomous driving capabilities is weaker than that of the two car companies Huawei and Xiaopeng, it is still one of the strongest competitors and catchers, which also means that it will continue to widen the gap with traditional car companies in terms of technical strength. The bank emphasizes that intelligence may become the core competitiveness of car companies in the next 3 years. The technology+data flywheel from leading new car companies will build deeper product power barriers.