The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that the wind power boom will recover in 2023, and it is expected to add 83 GW of installed capacity in 2024, of which the sea breeze is +46.4% compared to the same period last year. The wind power boom rebounded markedly in 2023, adding 75.9 GW of installed capacity throughout the year, +101.7%. Among them, sea/land added 6.8/69.1 GW respectively, +167.8%/+197.3%. Since 2024, several seabreeze projects in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places have been approved, and bids for fans/submarine cables have accelerated markedly since March. Approaching the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, domestic seabreeze projects are expected to usher in an intensive construction period; compounding the incremental space in overseas markets and the significant excess growth of the seabreeze industry chain, it is recommended to focus on targets related to the submarine cable/pile industry chain.
The main views of Huacheng Securities are as follows:
Huachuang Securities said that the wind power boom will recover in 2023, and it is expected to add 83 GW of installed capacity in 2024, of which the sea wind will increase by 46.4% compared to the same period last year. The wind power boom rebounded markedly in 2023, adding 75.9 GW of installed capacity throughout the year, +101.7%. Among them, sea/land added 6.8/69.1 GW respectively, +167.8%/+197.3%. In 2024Q1, 15.5GW of wind power was added, +49% year-on-year, of which 0.7/14.8GW was added for sea/land respectively, +35.3%/+49.7% year-on-year. Considering each province's “14th Five-Year Plan” wind power installation goals and current project bidding progress, it is expected that new wind power installations will continue to grow upward in 2024. It is expected that 83 GW of new installed capacity will be added throughout the year, +8.7% year over year. Of these, sea/land will be 10/73 GW, or +46.4%/+5% compared to the same period last year.
The number of tenders for wind power reached 86.3GW in 2023, and it is expected that a high increase in tenders will be achieved in 2024. According to Goldwind Technology, the wind power tender volume in 2023 was 86.3GW, -12.4% year-on-year. Of these, sea/land tenders were 8.9/77.4 GW respectively, or -39.5%/-7.7% compared to the same period last year. The 2024Q1 wind power tender volume was 23.3GW, -13% year-on-year, with sea/land tenders for 2/21.3 GW respectively. Considering that the Q1 Sea Wind project is progressing slowly, since April, Jiangsu/Guangdong Province has launched offshore fan tenders one after another, and the Zhejiang/Fujian Seabreeze project has been opened one after another, and progress has accelerated markedly. In order to meet the goals of the “14th Five-Year Plan” plan on time, the number of tenders is expected to grow at a high rate in 24 years.
Wind power revenue rebounded in '23, and overall profit in 24Q1 was still under pressure. Judging from sample data, in 2023, the wind power sector achieved revenue of 402.24 billion yuan, +8.2% year on year; net profit to mother of 19.9 billion yuan, -17.2% year on year; gross margin was 16%, -0.7 pct year on year; and net interest rate was 5.2%, -1.4 pct year on year. The 2024Q1 wind power sector achieved revenue of 76.57 billion yuan, +5.1% year on year; net profit to mother of 4.08 billion yuan, -25.3% year on year; gross margin of 16.9%, -0.9 pct year on year; and net interest rate of 5.6%, -2.1 pct year on year.
Revenue in all sectors maintained positive growth in 23, and the 24Q1 sector was clearly divided due to the pace of delivery. By sector, in terms of revenue scale, 2023 benefited from a recovery in industry sentiment. Revenue in all segments maintained positive growth. Among them, anchor chain (+27.3%) /tower pile (+15.4%) /blade (+12.1%) ranked in the top three. In 2024Q1, affected by the traditional off-season of construction and the pace of delivery, only the revenue of complete machines (+31.5%), blades (+2.5%), and submarine cables (+2.3%) maintained positive growth. Among them, the overall revenue of the machinery sector increased significantly due to a low comparison base.
Benefiting from increased demand and falling raw material prices in 23, the gross margin of multiple sectors increased year-on-year; profits in the 24Q1 Haifeng sector remained resilient. In terms of profitability, demand for wind power recovered in 2023, compounded by falling prices of various raw materials. The gross margin of the anchor chain/casting/casting/pile/bearing/blade sector all increased, and the gross margin of the submarine cable sector decreased slightly by 0.3 pct; with the exception of towers (-1pct) /complete machine (-3.8pct) /blade (-4.3pct), net interest rates in all other sectors rebounded. The gross margins of the 2024Q1 pile, anchor chain, and complete machine sectors were +1.9pct/+1.1pct/+0.3pct, respectively; the net interest rate of the anchor chain/pile sector rose, +3.1 pct/+0.3 pct, respectively.
It is recommended to focus on the target:
In terms of ocean wind, such as Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH), Dongfang Cable (603606.SH), Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487.SH), Qifan Cable (), Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ), Taisheng Wind (300129.SZ), Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ), Tianshun Wind Energy (002531.SZ), etc. 605222.SH
On the Lu Feng side, it is recommended to focus on Times New Materials (600458.SH), Sany Heavy Energy (688349.SH), Sun Moon Co., Ltd. (603218.SH), etc.
Risk warning: Wind power installations fall short of expectations, overseas market development falls short of expectations, commodity price fluctuations, etc.