The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tianfeng International released a research report saying that the recent dividend adjustments were mainly due to a sharp decline in coal and petroleum and petrochemicals. Among these, there are two main reasons: First, dividends have been rising all the time, so short-term congestion has been too high, triggering adjustments. Second, there are quite a few cyclical products in dividends. In fact, these are also commodities. The trend is more or less affected by overseas markets. Recently, several important varieties, such as copper, crude oil, gold and silver, etc., have adjusted, and these have also indirectly affected cyclical sector sentiment.

Tianfeng International believes that the recent month-on-month rise in thermal coal prices is due more to supply-side contraction. For example, from the point of view of production, there are many security checks in places such as Shaanxi and Shanxi, so there are expectations that supply will be tightened, and prices in production areas have also stabilized. Meanwhile, on the port side, downstream inquiries have gradually increased, and some demand for bottom checks has been released, giving port traders a strong will to raise prices. Therefore, supply-side factors provide some support for coal prices.

However, in reality, we need to look at downstream demand. Currently, we are still in the low demand season. Not only are power plant inventories high, but they are also unwilling to replenish stocks; procurement is just what is needed. Non-electric demand for chemicals, building materials, etc., has also declined in operating rates. Coupled with the current increase in hydropower output, there is not much incentive overall. Therefore, at present, there are no strong conditions for price increases for thermal coal. Maybe by June-July, after entering the peak electricity demand season, the situation will be better.

In terms of coking coal, the situation is much better than thermal coal. Recently, prices have continued to rise, and downstream coke prices have also achieved a second round of increases, and market sentiment has improved rapidly.

There are several reasons for the rise in coking coal prices: First, bond issuance is expected to accelerate, which may support demand recovery in the second quarter. The downstream coking coal mainly produces steel. This demand mainly tracks the index of molten iron production. The recovery in molten iron production represents an increase in the willingness of steel mills to work, and the demand for coking coal will also increase. Demand for iron and water was weak in the first quarter, mainly due to weak infrastructure. The reason behind this may be restrictions on local government bonds, slow issuance of special bonds, etc. However, in the second quarter, expectations for the release of special bonds and special treasury bonds heated up, demand for steel recovered, and iron and water production rebounded, which in turn drove demand for coking coal to be replenished.

Second, the supply of coking coal has always been tight. In recent years, due to downward expectations in real estate infrastructure, coking companies have maintained a strategy of low inventory for a long time. Currently, coking coal stocks are at their lowest level in nearly 5 years. Moreover, most of the main production areas of coking coal are in Shanxi, where there are too many gas mines. Therefore, in the context of stricter security checks, the supply elasticity of coking coal will be weaker than thermal coal.

In addition, the main contract for coking coal futures is now 2409. Compared to recent monthly contracts, the 09 contract is farther away, and there is more room for imagination about the policy segment, so there is more money coming in and willing to play with macroeconomic policies. In addition, September is also the peak season for coking coal demand. Since April, coking coal futures prices have rapidly rebounded from the bottom.

Currently, from an equity perspective, the expected dividend rate for these coal companies in 2024 is not low. Most of them are 6%. Judging from the valuation, coking coal companies have relatively low valuations, and PE is generally 9-10 times higher. The valuation of thermal coal companies, on the other hand, is relatively high, around 11-14 times. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, the fundamentals of coking coal are also better than thermal coal, and the price of coking coal has risen markedly recently, yet thermal coal prices have not had many conditions to rise in the short term. Therefore, subsequent coking coal may be more cost-effective than thermal coal.

Judging from recent commodity trends, the market was very strong. After the gold, silver, and crude oil pullback in the early stages, which led the index to break out of a big shadow, it quickly broke out of a pattern engulfing the Dayang Line, and continued to rise for the next two days, hitting new highs. In fact, this will also affect the performance of the cyclical sector in equity. In view of the strong prices of resource products. However, the seesaw effect of current dividend resources and technological growth is quite obvious. Coal and TMT are even more negatively correlated.

Therefore, dividends are basically in a passive role. When technological growth is sexy enough, capital will be taken away from dividends to speculate on market players. Conversely, when technological growth speculates on performance concerns in the short term, capital will return to the dividend to defend itself. Resources, as an important weighted sector in dividends, have also caused stock price fluctuations.

Well, after coal performed well in April, it is likely that in May, along with dividends, it will be temporarily cut off. There is a high probability that the market will return to the hype on the topic. However, the dividend rate of coal companies is very high, and supply constraints are obvious, so it won't fall too deep. When the level of congestion is adjusted to -1 to -1.5 times the standard deviation, you can still pay attention. For example, the trend was the same as last year. It surged higher at the beginning of the year and then fell back to July.