Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy Company Limited (SZSE:000683) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy had debt of CN¥8.10b, up from CN¥6.91b in one year. However, it does have CN¥3.01b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥5.10b.
How Healthy Is Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy had liabilities of CN¥7.62b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥7.43b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.01b in cash and CN¥1.73b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥10.3b.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy has a market capitalization of CN¥28.2b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy has net debt of just 1.0 times EBITDA, suggesting it could ramp leverage without breaking a sweat. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So it's fair to say it can handle debt like a hotshot teppanyaki chef handles cooking. Also positive, Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy grew its EBIT by 20% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy reported free cash flow worth 8.0% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
On our analysis Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.