Cocoa production in West Africa is shrinking due to bad weather, aging trees, and crop diseases, and in Brazil's arid grasslands, enterprising farmers have seen opportunities.

Growers in western Bahia (Bahia state) are now growing cocoa for the first time. The hot, dry state of Bahia is famous for its influential peasant families who grew rich by exporting cotton and soybeans. These trees are still young, and most will take at least a year to bear fruit, but the potential harvest days are huge. This has attracted both independent growers and corporate giants to get involved.

Agricultural conglomerate giant Cargill Inc. (Cargill Inc.) is teaming up with the large agricultural group Schmidt Agricola (Schmidt Agricola) to grow 400 hectares (about 990 acres) of cocoa outside of Barreiras (Barreiras) in Bahia (Barreiras) by car in more than an hour. Swiss chocolate producer Barry Callebaut AG (Barry Callebaut AG) and a high-tech partner plan to jointly develop about 5,000 hectares of cocoa plantations in the state. Farmer families that already grow tropical fruits or commercial crops are also growing cocoa trees this season, hoping to occupy a corner in this important global market, which has not appeared in this region of Brazil for decades.

According to estimates by the Brazilian Cocoa Commission, if production in new regions jumps up, Brazil's cocoa production could nearly double to about 400,000 tons by 2030. This would bring the country close to the 3rd place in the world, with Ecuador currently ranked 3rd. Some say this prediction is too conservative. Schmidt, one of Moises' Schmidt Agricola's brothers, is betting that if the grower continues to grow in new regions like the one he is growing now, production will reach 1.8 million tons per year over the next 10 years, in addition to the country's more traditional cocoa regions.

Schmidt said that Brazil is already the world's largest supplier of a large number of commodities, from soybeans to orange juice. Last month, more than 1,000 landowners, academics, and local authorities visited his land to see the seedlings in person. “What is our position on cocoa?”

Brazil used to be one of the main ingredients for chocolate production in the world, but since the late 1980s, many of the country's cocoa trees have fallen ill due to disease outbreaks. Today, the Ivory Coast and Ghana account for more than half of global production.

This situation, which is concentrated in two countries, makes global supply more vulnerable to risks such as severe weather and crop diseases, which will only increase as weather fluctuations become more extreme. The recent shortage of cocoa production in West Africa has more than doubled global cocoa prices this year, boosted consumer prices for chocolate bars, and even forced some chocolate manufacturers to shut down.

Farmers had begun growing the first batch of cocoa in West Bahia before the latest rise in cocoa prices; now, neighboring farms are seeing this appeal. Growers in Bahia are generally more well-funded and larger than those in West Africa, which means they can achieve economies of scale. Brazilian farmers can also sell at market prices without government intervention, as in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Since cocoa beans don't go bad, sellers can wait for the right time to trade.

There is sunshine all year round, extensive irrigation, and fertilizer, which can speed up the cocoa harvest. Some cacao trees can bear fruit in 3 years, while the traditional ones can bear fruit in 5 years. Although one farmer described the climate as “between heat and hell,” the area's existing irrigation system means farmers can keep their crops hydrated even on the warmest days.

Tal Bar-Dor (Tal Bar-Dor), the chief operating officer of a farm in Barra (Barra), Brazil, said, “Cocoa is like a contagious bug, and everyone who likes it stays inside.” Prior to entering the agriculture industry, Bar-Do worked as a civil engineer in Israel and Nigeria. Last year, he planted cocoa trees on his own coconut farm. He plans to increase the land area from the current 45 hectares to around 1,000 hectares within the next 4 years.

Growers in other parts of Latin America are also watching the growth. In Colombia, the country's largest food processing company, Grupo Nutresa, is investing in a new nursery with the goal of growing 10 million cocoa trees over the next five years. According to Ivan Ontaneda (Ivan Ontaneda), president of the Ecuadorian Cocoa Exporters Association (Anecacao), in Ecuador, which is already a major producer, farmers are expanding the planting area and increasing technology to increase production by more than 50% to 700,000 tons within four years.

“Higher prices will definitely motivate farmers to invest in their farmland,” he said. “The current situation in West Africa is an opportunity for Latin America.”

Back in western Bahia, farmer Claudia choked when she saw Schmidt's young orchard. Decades ago, she saw many of her family's cocoa trees in southern Bahia being devastated by disease; she recalls seeing her father frantically searching for the few untouched ones. Although the disease was not eradicated, many farms learned how to deal with it, as scientists later discovered seedlings that were more resistant to this fungus.

“We almost weren't here and almost wiped this country off the cocoa map,” she said during a visit to the new cocoa production area about 600 miles (about 600 km) from her farm. Now, “there are no more restrictions.”