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Lithia Motors' (NYSE:LAD) 19% CAGR Outpaced the Company's Earnings Growth Over the Same Five-year Period

Simply Wall St ·  May 11 08:41

Lithia Motors, Inc. (NYSE:LAD) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 13% in the last quarter. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. In fact, the share price is 130% higher today. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now.

Since the stock has added US$295m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Lithia Motors achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 25% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 18% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 7.75.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:LAD Earnings Per Share Growth May 11th 2024

This free interactive report on Lithia Motors' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Lithia Motors' TSR for the last 5 years was 138%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Lithia Motors' TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 26%. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year's return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 19%. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Lithia Motors better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Lithia Motors has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

We will like Lithia Motors better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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