■Stock Market Forecast
Expected range: upper limit 38800 yen - lower limit 37800 yen
The US stock market on the 10th of this weekend is mixed. The Dow average closed at 39512.84 dollars, which was 125.08 dollars higher (+ 0.32%) than the previous day, the NASDAQ was 16340.87, 5.39 points lower (-0.03%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5222.68, which was 8.60 points higher (+ 0.16%). Nikkei 225 futures in the Taisen Night Session closed at 38210 yen, which was 30 yen lower than the regular closing price.
On the daily chart of the Nikkei Average, the possibility that the 25-day moving average will fall below the 75-day moving average is increasing, and short-term trends are gradually deteriorating. There were several scenes where the Nikkei Average exceeded the 25-day moving average this week, but developments where they quickly bounced back were conspicuous. In the Ichimoku equilibrium table, beautiful movement along the lower limit of clouds can be seen. Since the downward reference line suppresses the upper price, it seems that there are developments where the lower cloud limit, which is located at the 38229 yen level, can be temporarily lowered, but since the atmosphere of actively trading indices cannot be felt, the lower cloud limit level seems to function as constant lower price support.
Not only the Nikkei Average, but TOPIX also lacks a sense of direction. After the financial results of Toyota Motor Corporation ＜7203＞ were announced during trading hours on 5/8, there was also a scene where TOPIX was relatively strong, but since Toyota itself experienced a downward trend after the 9th, no noticeable movement was observed with the NT ratio at the 14.0 times level.
Exchange rate fluctuations from late April to early May all occurred early in the morning before the Tokyo market was closed or opened, so Japanese stocks were not directly affected, but the market is aware that the fluctuation in exchange rates is a factor that forces people to refrain from active trading. In addition to these factors, financial results announcements of companies for the fiscal year ending March 31 will peak next week, so the Nikkei Average and TOPIX will continue to have a poor sense of direction.
The trading price of the weekend prime market is constantly in the 4-5 trillion yen range due to the increase in trading centered on stocks announcing financial results, and the trading price is not visibly decreasing like in the growth market. However, the Nikkei Average has surpassed the 25-day moving average and there is not even a movement in semiconductor stocks such as Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞, which is essential for aiming for the 39,000 yen or 40000 yen range. It is difficult for these semiconductor stocks to move until the financial results of NVIDIA, a major US semiconductor company, which is expected to be in late May.
There must be many market participants who remember that the Nikkei Average surpassed the 1989/12/29 high during the bubble period after NVIDIA financial results were announced in February. Since we are expecting a detonator image like three months ago from NVIDIA's financial results, I don't think there will be a noticeable direction for the Tokyo market next week. Note that the financial results of Tokyo Electron, which were announced after closing on the 10th, were almost in line with the market consensus, so it seems that sharp declines such as SCREENHD ＜7735＞ this week will be avoided.
■Exchange Market Outlook
Will the dollar and yen grow sluggish next week? There is a possibility that the dollar will continue to be difficult to lower due to the interest rate difference between Japan and the US. However, views have emerged that the Bank of Japan will begin discussions aimed at financial normalization, and it seems unlikely that risk-loving dollar buying/yen sales will expand immediately. If the depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the dollar progresses beyond 1 dollar = 156 yen, there is a possibility that market intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan will be carried out is also likely to be one reason to suppress the rise in the dollar.
If the April consumer price index or April retail sales fall below market expectations according to the US economic indicators scheduled to be announced next week, observations of interest rate cuts within the year will intensify, and the upper price of the dollar is likely to become slightly heavier. Furthermore, negative growth is expected for Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March fiscal year announced on 5/16, and speculation spreads that the Bank of Japan will maintain an accommodative financial environment for the time being if it falls below market expectations, and there is still a possibility that the dollar and yen will show solid movements.
■Next week's featured schedule
5/13 (Monday): SoftBank G financial results, India/Consumer Price Index (April), talks between US Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President, Europe/Eurozone Finance Ministers Meeting, etc.
5/14 (Tue): Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (April), “Impact Forum” held (Financial Services Agency), Rakuten G/ Nitori HD/ Dentsu G/ SMC etc. Settlement, German CPI (April), UK Unemployment Rate (April), German ZEW Expectations Index (May), US Producer Price Core Index (April), U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB) Chairman Powell and Bank of the Netherlands (central bank) Governor Knott give lectures, Alibaba financial results, etc.
5/15 (Wednesday): Number of foreign visitors to Japan (April), Recruit H financial results, revised Europe/Eurozone GDP value (January-March), US/consumer price core index (April), US/retail sales (April), US/New York Fed manufacturing business index (May), US/Minneapolis Fed President participated in a roundtable discussion, etc.
5/16 (Thursday): Preliminary GDP figures (January-March), Australian unemployment rate (April), number of US housing starts (April), number of US housing construction permits (April), US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing business climate index (May), US Philadelphia Fed President gives a lecture, US Cleveland Fed President gives a lecture, US Atlanta Fed President attends discussions, etc.
5/17 (Friday): China-Industrial Production Index (April), China-Retail Sales (April), Europe/Eurozone CPI (April), Peru/Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting (until 18th), etc.