The outlook for the main economic indicators to be announced for the week of 5/13-17 is as follows.
■Scheduled to be announced on Wednesday 15th at 6:00 p.m.
○ (Europe) revised gross regional product value for the fiscal year ending January-March period - preliminary value +0.4% compared to the previous year.
The preliminary figures for reference are +0.4% compared to the same period last year. The recovery in construction investment and exports in Germany, which is the core country, contributed to growth. It is expected that there will be no major revisions in the revised values, and the growth rate is expected to be at the same level as the preliminary figures. As for the future, trends in private consumption are likely to influence growth.
■Scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, 15th at 9:30 p.m.
○ (US) April Consumer Price Core Index - forecast +3.6% YoY
The March results, which serve as a reference, are +3.8% compared to the previous year. Service prices and housing costs continue to rise, and there are many views that a rapid decline in the inflation rate cannot be expected. There is a possibility that the core inflation rate for April will remain at the same level as the March results.
■Scheduled to be announced at 8:50 a.m. on Thursday 16th
○ (Sun) Preliminary gross domestic product value for the fiscal year ending January-March period - forecast is 1.5% per annum compared to the previous fiscal year
The growth rate is expected to be negative for the first time in two quarters. It seems that rising prices and production cuts due to certification fraud by major automobile companies have put pressure on economic growth. Since no significant recovery in personal consumption, exports, capital investment, etc. can be expected for the April-6 fiscal year and beyond, the economic growth rate is expected to remain low.
■Scheduled to be announced at 11:00 a.m. on 17th (Friday)
○ (Mid-April) April retail sales - forecast is +3.8% compared to the previous year
The March results, which serve as a reference, fell short of market expectations by +3.1% compared to the same month last year. Real estate market conditions are uncertain, and domestic demand is slightly sluggish. Since a significant recovery in private consumption is not expected, there is a possibility that growth will only slightly exceed the March results for April.
○Other major economic indicators will be announced
・14th (Tue): (US) April Producer Price Core Index
・Wednesday 15: (Europe) March Eurozone industrial production, (US) April retail sales
・16th (Thursday): (Australia) April unemployment rate
・Friday 17th: (Middle) April Industrial Production