■The Nikkei Average lacks a sense of direction

The Nikkei Average from last week to this week (4/30 to 5/10) rose 294.35 yen (+ 0.78%) from the 4/26 closing price to 38229.11 yen. It seems that the Japanese government implemented two yen-buy-dollar sales interventions on 4/29 and 5/2, and the appreciation of the yen and dollar depreciation progressed from the 1 dollar = 160 yen range on 4/29 to the 151 yen level on 5/3. After that, the exchange rate fluctuated, such as returning to the 155 yen level as of this weekend. Since rough price movements in exchange were disgusted, the sense of direction of the Nikkei Average became scarce.

Also, as announcements of companies with financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31 were in full swing, market expectations were rising due to the depreciation of the yen and anti-deflation momentum, etc., and SCREENHD ＜7735＞, Panasonic HD ＜6752＞, Nippon Steel ＜5401＞, Toyota Motor Corporation ＜7203＞, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ＜7011＞, etc. had an advantage in sales. There were also stocks that were bought after announcing good results, such as Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012) and Daikin Industries (6367), etc., but since negative reactions were slightly conspicuous in financial results announcements up to this point, it also led to a deterioration in investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, in the US market, the NY Dow rose for 7 consecutive business days until the 10th, and US stocks rose, with the NASDAQ approaching an all-time high. The steady movement of US stocks underpinned Japanese stocks. Note, according to trading trends by investor for the 1st week of May announced on the 10th, foreign investors overbought actual goods by 1909 billion yen, overbought TOPIX futures by 7.3 billion yen, and oversold 225 futures by 10.5 billion yen, resulting in a total overpurchase of 173.1 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors oversold the actual product by 291.3 billion yen, for a total of 162.4 billion yen. Furthermore, the trust overbought the actual item for 25.7 billion yen.

■Look like your head was held back by the downward 25th line

The US stock market on the 10th of this weekend is mixed. The Dow average closed at 39512.84 dollars, which was 125.08 dollars higher (+ 0.32%) than the previous day, the NASDAQ was 16340.87, 5.39 points lower (-0.03%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5222.68, which was 8.60 points higher (+ 0.16%). Nikkei 225 futures in the Taisen Night Session closed at 38210 yen, which was 30 yen lower than the regular closing price.

On the daily chart of the Nikkei Average, the possibility that the 25-day moving average will fall below the 75-day moving average is increasing, and short-term trends are gradually deteriorating. There were several scenes where the Nikkei Average exceeded the 25-day moving average this week, but developments where they quickly bounced back were conspicuous. In the Ichimoku equilibrium table, beautiful movement along the lower limit of clouds can be seen. Since the downward reference line suppresses the upper price, it seems that there are developments where the lower cloud limit, which is located at the 38229 yen level, can be temporarily lowered, but since the atmosphere of actively trading indices cannot be felt, the lower cloud limit level seems to function as constant lower price support.

Not only the Nikkei Average, but TOPIX also lacked a sense of direction. After Toyota's own financial results were announced during the trading hours on the 8th, there was also a scene where TOPIX was relatively strong, but since Toyota itself experienced a downward trend after the 9th, no noticeable movement was observed with the NT ratio at the 14.0 times level.

Exchange rate fluctuations from late April to early May all occurred early in the morning before the Tokyo market was closed or opened, so Japanese stocks were not directly affected, but the market is aware that the fluctuation in exchange rates is a factor that forces people to refrain from active trading. In addition to these factors, financial results announcements of companies for the fiscal year ending March 31 will peak next week, so the Nikkei Average and TOPIX will continue to have a poor sense of direction.

■Does the Nikkei Average rise depend on NVIDIA

The trading price of the weekend prime market is constantly in the 4-5 trillion yen range due to trading centered on stocks that have announced financial results, and the trading price is not visibly decreasing like in the growth market.

However, the Nikkei Average has surpassed the 25-day moving average and there is not even a movement in semiconductor stocks such as Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞, which is essential for aiming for the 39,000 yen or 40000 yen range. It is difficult for these semiconductor stocks to move until the financial results of NVIDIA, a major US semiconductor company, which is expected to be in late May. There must be many market participants who remember that the Nikkei Average surpassed the 1989/12/29 high during the bubble period after NVIDIA financial results were announced in February. Since we are expecting a detonator image like three months ago from NVIDIA's financial results, I don't think there will be a noticeable direction for the Tokyo market next week. Note that the financial results of Tokyo Electron, which were announced after closing on the 10th, were almost in line with the market consensus, so it seems that sharp declines like Screen HD will be avoided.

■US CPI announced on the 15th

Next week, domestically, the April domestic corporate goods price index is scheduled for the 14th, the January-March gross domestic product (GDP) preliminary value for the 16th, and the March facility occupancy rate, etc.

Overseas, the German/April consumer price index (CPI) on the 14th, the May ZEW expectation index, the English-January to March ILO unemployment rate, April employment statistics, the Europe/May Eurozone ZEW business confidence index, the US-April producer price core index, the 15th, the Australia/Eurozone GDP revised value for the fiscal year ending 1-3, the US-April consumer price core index, the May New York Fed manufacturing business climate index, April retail sales, weekly crude oil inventory on the 16th, the US/April employment statistics The number of insurance applications, number of housing starts in April, the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing business climate index, April industrial production index, mid-April new housing prices, industrial production index, retail sales, etc. are scheduled for the 17th.