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Is Vaxcyte (NASDAQ:PCVX) A Risky Investment?

Is Vaxcyte (NASDAQ:PCVX) A Risky Investment?

Vaxcyte(納斯達克股票代碼:PCVX)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  05/10 09:43

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Vaxcyte, Inc. (NASDAQ:PCVX) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。重要的是,Vaxcyte, Inc.(納斯達克股票代碼:PCVX)確實有債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時危險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法還清貸方,那麼債務就任其擺佈。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能一無所有地離開。儘管這種情況不太常見,但我們經常看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人迫使他們以低價籌集資金。但是,通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業的一個非常好的工具。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將其現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Vaxcyte's Net Debt?

Vaxcyte 的淨負債是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 Vaxcyte had US$29.2m of debt, an increase on none, over one year. However, it does have US$1.08b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of US$1.05b.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2023年12月,Vaxcyte在一年內有2920萬美元的債務,比零有所增加。但是,它確實有10.8億美元的現金抵消了這一點,淨現金爲10.5億美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:PCVX Debt to Equity History May 10th 2024
NASDAQGS: PCVX 債券與股本的比率歷史 2024 年 5 月 10 日

How Strong Is Vaxcyte's Balance Sheet?

Vaxcyte 的資產負債表有多強?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Vaxcyte had liabilities of US$145.3m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$22.1m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$1.08b in cash and US$3.61m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has US$916.4m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

根據上次報告的資產負債表,Vaxcyte的負債爲1.453億美元,12個月後到期的負債爲2,210萬美元。與此相抵消的是,它有10.8億美元的現金和361萬美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有9.164億美元 更多 流動資產超過總負債。

This short term liquidity is a sign that Vaxcyte could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Succinctly put, Vaxcyte boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load! The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Vaxcyte's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

這種短期流動性表明,由於其資產負債表遠未緊張,Vaxcyte可能會輕鬆還清債務。簡而言之,Vaxcyte擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定Vaxcyte未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

Since Vaxcyte doesn't have significant operating revenue, shareholders may be hoping it comes up with a great new product, before it runs out of money.

由於Vaxcyte沒有可觀的營業收入,股東們可能希望它在資金耗盡之前推出一款很棒的新產品。

So How Risky Is Vaxcyte?

那麼 Vaxcyte 的風險有多大?

Statistically speaking companies that lose money are riskier than those that make money. And the fact is that over the last twelve months Vaxcyte lost money at the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) line. Indeed, in that time it burnt through US$365m of cash and made a loss of US$437m. While this does make the company a bit risky, it's important to remember it has net cash of US$1.05b. That kitty means the company can keep spending for growth for at least two years, at current rates. Overall, its balance sheet doesn't seem overly risky, at the moment, but we're always cautious until we see the positive free cash flow. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Vaxcyte (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

從統計學上講,虧損的公司比賺錢的公司風險更大。事實是,在過去的十二個月中,Vaxcyte的利息和稅前收益(EBIT)額度蒙受了損失。事實上,在那段時間裏,它燒燬了3.65億美元的現金,損失了4.37億美元。儘管這確實使公司有點風險,但重要的是要記住它的淨現金爲10.5億美元。這意味着,按照目前的速度,公司可以將增長支出保持至少兩年。總體而言,其資產負債表目前似乎風險不大,但在看到正自由現金流之前,我們始終保持謹慎。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。我們已經確定了Vaxcyte的3個警告信號(至少有1個對我們來說不太合適),了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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