Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE:BKD) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$783m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Brookdale Senior Living losing US$0.13 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Brookdale Senior Living's twin analysts is for revenues of US$3.13b in 2024. This reflects a decent 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 42% to US$0.52. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.14b and losses of US$0.70 per share in 2024. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.
The average price target held steady at US$8.38, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Brookdale Senior Living's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 11% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.7% annually. So it looks like Brookdale Senior Living is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$8.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Brookdale Senior Living , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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