According to local Egyptian media reports on the 9th, the revenue of the Suez Canal Authority fell to 575.1 million US dollars in April this year, a drop of more than 36% compared with 904.5 million US dollars in the same period last year.
Due to the Red Sea shipping crisis and geopolitical tension, Maersk and many other shipping companies chose to avoid the Suez Canal Bypass to avoid attacks on Red Sea ships by the Houthis in Yemen.
The agency's call conference believes that in the context of containers orbiting the Red Sea, the current rise in freight rates is driven by insufficient capacity fundamentals, not because shipping companies actively control capacity. The rise in container ship rents can be verified. Short-term demand has exceeded expectations, and peak season demand has not been overdrawn. If the Red Sea detour continues, prices will still have room to rise in June-August.
There is no division between procyclical logic and distribution. Tanker freight rates are strong in the off-season, macroeconomic expectations have improved, shipping prosperity has increased, and the upward trend in shipping prices has not changed. Apart from updates and environmental cycle logic, the increase in shipping sentiment further promotes the sustainability of shipping prices and orders.
Valuation pricing logic: Tankers with insufficient orders for new ships, dry bulk PE, and NAV take the higher ones. Under the short and long term logic of shipping with more orders for new ships, the upward phase can be based on the cash on the account plus net cash accumulated during the current Red Sea round. The end of the Red Sea detour phase lacked valuation support.
The shipping sector is valued according to the evaluation performance (current ship price, production capacity, cost, exchange rate) 10-15 times PE, or market value order ratio method.
The shipping sector has the highest risk-to-return ratio, and the US stock ZIM has a strong logic of saving capital. The tanker and ship sectors have high certainty, and the expected yield is neutral.
Where investors are confused: The sustainability of the Red Sea cannot be judged in the context of short and long shipping. It is recommended to understand it according to the logic of options. There is a high degree of certainty about the price increase in May-August. There is a high peak season option value in May-June, and the value of the July-August option will fall (the earlier the allocation, the higher the uncertainty). Oil tankers, dispersion, and ship logic are less related to Red Sea detours.
Listed companies in the relevant shipping market include:
Shipping: ZIM, COSCO Marine Control (01919.HK), Orient Overseas International (00316), Haifeng International (01308)
Tanker bulk cargo: China Merchants Shipping, China Southern Oil, COSCO Marine (01138); Pacific Shipping (02343)
US stocks: focus on dry bulk HSHP GOGL SBLK GNK SHIP, tanker INSW STNG TNK FRO ECO
Ships: China Heavy Industries, China Shipbuilding, China Shipbuilding Defense (00317), Sumeda