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The Total Return for CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Investors Has Risen Faster Than Earnings Growth Over the Last Five Years

Simply Wall St ·  May 9 06:37

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But you can do a lot better than that by buying good quality businesses for attractive prices. For example, the CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) share price is up 75% in the last five years, slightly above the market return. Also positive is the 8.1% share price rise over the last year.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, CF Industries Holdings managed to grow its earnings per share at 36% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 12% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 11.55.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:CF Earnings Per Share Growth May 9th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how CF Industries Holdings has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at CF Industries Holdings' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, CF Industries Holdings' TSR for the last 5 years was 96%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

CF Industries Holdings provided a TSR of 11% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 14% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CF Industries Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for CF Industries Holdings (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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