Graphic Packaging Holding Company's (NYSE:GPK) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 32x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
Recent times have been pleasing for Graphic Packaging Holding as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Is There Any Growth For Graphic Packaging Holding?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Graphic Packaging Holding would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 9.8%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 161% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 12% per year as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% per annum, which is not materially different.
In light of this, it's peculiar that Graphic Packaging Holding's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Graphic Packaging Holding currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is in line with the wider market. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Graphic Packaging Holding (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Graphic Packaging Holding. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.