Soft earnings didn't appear to concern Twin Disc, Incorporated's (NASDAQ:TWIN) shareholders over the last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.
Zooming In On Twin Disc's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
For the year to March 2024, Twin Disc had an accrual ratio of -0.13. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$30m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$10.4m. Notably, Twin Disc had negative free cash flow last year, so the US$30m it produced this year was a welcome improvement.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Twin Disc.
Our Take On Twin Disc's Profit Performance
As we discussed above, Twin Disc has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Twin Disc's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! Unfortunately, though, its earnings per share actually fell back over the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Just as investors must consider earnings, it is also important to take into account the strength of a company's balance sheet. We've done some analysis and you can see our take on Twin Disc's balance sheet by clicking here.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Twin Disc's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.