Landsea Homes Corporation (NASDAQ:LSEA) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 25% in the last month. But looking back over the last year, the returns have actually been rather pleasing! To wit, it had solidly beat the market, up 65%.
In light of the stock dropping 13% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over the last twelve months, Landsea Homes actually shrank its EPS by 55%.
So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.
Landsea Homes' revenue actually dropped 8.0% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Landsea Homes in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Landsea Homes shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 65% over the last year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 0.2% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Landsea Homes (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.
Landsea Homes is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.