In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term SolarWinds Corporation (NYSE:SWI) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 69% over a half decade.
While the last five years has been tough for SolarWinds shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Given that SolarWinds only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.
In the last five years SolarWinds saw its revenue shrink by 3.3% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. With neither profit nor revenue growth, the loss of 11% per year doesn't really surprise us. The chance of imminent investor enthusiasm for this stock seems slimmer than Louise Brooks. Not that many investors like to invest in companies that are losing money and not growing revenue.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that SolarWinds has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between SolarWinds' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. SolarWinds hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -30% exceeds its share price return of -69%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that SolarWinds shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 46% over one year. That certainly beats the loss of about 5% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - SolarWinds has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.
But note: SolarWinds may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.